Budget date guess — late April
It’s a mug’s game, but there’s no shortage of players when pitching dates for a possible federal budget. This time around, the prognosticators have been thrown a few curves.
First up, the federal government is still crunching the numbers — and making last-minute phone calls to the usual trusted group of private-sector economists, touching base most recently around the March 3 tally by Statistics Canada of 2014’s fourth-quarter economic growth.
Then there’s that not-so-small handicap of plunging oil prices — the level of which is already below where it was when Finance Minister Joe Oliver last spoke to Bay Streeters and pencilled in their estimates.
Global crude has lost more than half its value since last summer. West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark for crude, was trading below $44 US on Monday, down by nearly $1 from its previous finish.
The resulting drop in federal oil revenues — and those of resources rich provinces, such as Alberta — continue to cut into budget estimates. But time is running out to deliver the 2015-16 budget.
“We have more information (now) than we had before,” Oliver told reporters Monday in Toronto. “So we’re getting close to making a decision.”
So Oliver will need to tap those same economists for fresh estimates before the spending document can go to the printer.
“That’s very typical. Pretty much every quarter they poll us,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.
“What was a little bit unusual this year is they also conducted the survey in February, as well,” he said. “But then they polled us again basically a month later, which is a little unusual to be asked twice in two months.”
The government has also been shaking down government departments and agencies to realize close-to-the-bone cuts to ensure the Conservatives meet their budget-balancing goal of the previous election — before they head into the next one.
Right now, however, the death of the deficit is still too close to call. Oliver’s most recent forecast was for a $1.9-billion surplus in 201516.
This much we can assume: The budget won’t be tabled in Parliament between April 3 and 17, when MPs will be enjoying the Easter long weekend, followed by their regular two-week break from the House. So, April 7 should be a non-starter.
It’s also unlikely Oliver would spring his budget on legislators their first day back from the break, on Monday, April 20.
As well, the spending blueprint usually comes during the first half of the week, giving the finance minister enough time to bang his drum in the face of opposition parties before taking the budget on the road.
So by default, the most likely budget dates are April 21 and 22. Or during the next week, April 27 or 28.
If not then, well, all bets are off until May — but that’s a month in which, over the past 15 years, only one budget was brought down.