Ontario PCs face a fork in the road with any leader
Ontario Progressive Conservatives start voting for a new leader this weekend. Their decision will determine the fate of their party and will go a long way toward deciding how Ontario is governed over the next decade.
What began as a five-person race has come down to a choice between two remaining candidates, MPP Christine Elliott from the progressive wing of the party, and MP Patrick Brown from the conservative side. Races like that are polarizing and there seems to be no love lost between the two camps and their supporters. Whoever wins the race in May will have a challenge uniting the party and returning it to power.
Brown, a 36-year-old MP from Barrie, has brought hard work, enthusiasm, organizational skills and valuable connections to ethnic communities. For those who think the party needs to be rebuilt from the ground up, Brown is the choice.
Elliott has experience at Queen’s Park, as a practising lawyer and as the mother of three sons. She has a deep knowledge of health care, the province’s most important responsibility. She has gained endorsements from most of the caucus, former MP John Baird and former leadership contenders Lisa MacLeod and Vic Fedeli. Elliott has the advantage of a seat in the legislature, something Brown lacks. For those who think the problem in recent elections was leadership, not the entire party and all of its ideas, Elliott is the choice.
Neither potential leader has taken advantage of the lengthy campaign to capture the public interest or show a clear vision for the future of the province. Brown has said the party needs a new direction, but he hasn’t said which one. He will consult with the grassroots if he is chosen leader. Elliott has done a little better, but this week she was talking about a line by line examination
Neither potential leader has taken advantage of the lengthy campaign to capture the public interest or show a clear vision for the future.
of the budget and scouring through the tax code. Hardly the stuff to win hearts and minds.
Both of the candidates have strengths, but the question PCs should be asking themselves is not who do they like the best, but who is more likely to win the support of other Ontarians in the next election? The PCs can’t form a government with their core vote of about 30 per cent.
They also need to ask which candidate will stand up best to the kind of campaign the Liberals always run. The Liberals can be relied upon to demonize the next PC leader. If they could make people believe that nice guy John Tory was out to destroy public education, they can make the voters believe anything.
Brown is particularly vulnerable to that kind of attack. He is a social conservative who has voted for right to life causes. The Campaign Life Coalition has given Brown a perfect score in his voting on issues important to them.
The Liberals will use this to frame Brown as a leader out to set back the cause of women’s rights by decades. If they can manage it, they will build a whole campaign on that. Elliott is much less easy to attack, partly because of her gender.
PCs who want a new approach for their party should also ask themselves just how different Patrick Brown really is.
In fact, Brown’s resume is a lot like former leader Tim Hudak’s. Both got into politics early and made a career of it. Both sought leadership at a relatively young age and both are more conservative than the average Ontarian. Where they differ is that Hudak had at least been a provincial cabinet minister. Despite being in Ottawa since 2006, Brown has yet to rise above the backbenches of the federal caucus.
The PC party does need change, but in my opinion, that means moving closer to the middle and presenting a plan for sustainable health care. Christine Elliott has a fair chance of accomplishing that. If PCs want to form the next government, they will choose her. If they choose Brown, they risk becoming an unelectable NDP of the right.