Free-for-all as world junior tourney begins
The last five world junior championships have been won by five different countries. It is another way of saying that the tournament, which Canada used to dominate to the point of boredom, is up for grabs for anyone.
So who are the favourites this year? Well, just about everybody. Here is a breakdown of the top five contenders, as well as where the dark horse could come from.
CANADA
Let’s get something out of the way: last year’s gold medal winners were special. With Connor McDavid and Max Domi leading the offence, the 2015 team that went undefeated throughout the tournament was possibly the best team that Canada has assembled in a non-lockout year.
But this year’s team is not lacking in top-end talent. With a philosophy built around small, skilled players like Mitch Marner, Brayden Point and Travis Konecny, the Canadians should be able to skate and score as well as any other team. The question mark is whether their goaltending — Mason McDonald will start the first two games, while Mackenzie Blackwood finishes serving a suspension — can hold up its end of the bargain.
UNITED STATES
So far, the early talk with the U.S. is not so much about who is on the team, but rather who isn’t. Alex Tuch, for instance, was not invited to camp despite playing on last year’s team. But considering that the U.S. failed to advance past the quarter-finals, you can’t blame them for wanting to go in a different direction.
With 2016 draft-eligible forwards Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk leading the offence, the Americans promise to be a dangerous offensive team. The only concern is whether a decision to favour role players over skilled snipers, such as QMJHL scoring leader Conor Garland, will work out in their favour.
RUSSIA
Russia has won a medal in each of the last five tournaments, something no other country can boast. Particularly, they have been a thorn in Canada’s side. In 2011, they famously erased a 3-0 third period lead by scoring five unanswered goals to win gold. They almost managed the same feat last year, when they scored three goals in less than four minutes in a game that everyone assumed had been over. Canada managed to hold on for a 5-4 win, but a lesson was learned: do not count out the Russians, who have four first-round picks from the 2015 draft on the roster, including top goalie prospect Ilya Samsonov.
SWEDEN
Expect a lot of Sedin-type comparisons when William and Alex Nylander team up at the world juniors. The brothers might not be twins, but they are so similarly skilled that opposing defences are going to be driven crazy trying to stop them, as their highlight-reel goal in an exhibition game against Slovakia clearly demonstrated. Sweden finished a disappointing fourth after losing to Slovakia in the bronze medal game in 2015, but played in the gold-medal final in each of the three years before that. With 12 returning players from last year, expect a stronger showing from the Swedes, who could spoil their geographic rival’s party.
FINLAND
The host country will definitely have the crowd behind them, but many think they are hosting one year too early. In other words, the team is young. That might not be a bad thing, especially if players such as 2016 top draft prospects Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrik Laine take a step forward and play beyond their years. The two 6-foot3, 200-pound forwards certainly have the size and skill to do it. But in a tournament that is mostly for 19-year-olds, Finland has its work cut out if it expects to replicate its performance from 2014, where they beat Canada in the semifinals and then edged Sweden in overtime to win gold.
DARK HORSE
Whether it was Switzerland upsetting the Russians in overtime in 2010 or Slovakia stunning Sweden to win bronze last year, there always seems to be a team that wins the hearts of fans with a Cinderella-type run. But with even the smallest countries putting together legit hockey programs, the surprises shouldn’t be all that surprising anymore. Who could be this year’s dark horse? Well, anyone, really.