TORIES’ CHOICES MIRROR THOSE OF REPUBLICANS
It is tempting for Canadian Conservatives to look at the Republicans’ festival of stupid in Cleveland and snicker; there is, thankfully, no Trump-style carnival barkery in Canada. But attention must be paid. The Republican convention is what happens when you chase your base up your own backside: You’re left talking out of your butt, alienating swathes of the electorate as you speak.
This week’s GOP convention is the apogee of years of diminishing returns. Republican postmortems in the wake of their first loss to Obama cautioned against alienating minorities, particularly Hispanics. Unfortunately, these same minorities don’t much figure into the nomination process. Recent Republican presidential candidates have thus bid up the crazy during the primaries, only to then attempt to reel it back in during the general election. This year, Trump isn’t even bothering to lipstick his pig of a campaign. Hispanics, Muslims and blacks need not apply.
However dispiriting, it can’t be wished away.
Donald Trump, like his populist cousins in Europe, has put his finger on some very real problems affecting the people who haven’t been well-served by globalization, immigration or the political class. Hearing and identifying with the marginalized is a good thing; pandering to them and reinforcing their insecurities isn’t. Just imagine how upset the Make America Great Again crowd will be when they figure out they’re but pawns in Donald Trump’s vainglory. He cares no more for them than any of the people he’s used to maintain his popularity over the years.
Fortunately, Canada isn’t the United States, and Canadian conservatism has little to do with American republicanism. But Conservatives are at an inflection point, and their choices now do mirror those facing Republicans after their first humiliation by Obama. Are they going to build out, or cater to the 30 per cent who stuck with them the last time? Will they narrow to the point where a Trump becomes a necessity?
Early flirtations with Kevin O’Leary are a sign of weakness, not strength.
Conservatives are at an inflection point, and their choices now do mirror those facing Republicans.
Conservatives must remember they’re playing the long game; there is no quick route to trump Trudeau. The young prime minister is popular and his party’s ratings are such that Conservatives would be rumped to Dipper-like proportions in the event of an election.
First step in rebuilding? Ignoring the polls.
The second step? Picking a leader who can build beyond the base. Here, the leadership race was added to, if not strengthened, by the recent declarations from Tony Clement and Deepak Obhrai. Fine men both, but they’re not the answer. Clement has run for everything and won nothing. As for Deepak, when your primary skill is (deliberate) inscrutability in your House responses, it doesn’t augur well for sharp outreach.
The most important contribution from the current crop of leadership candidates, if not their persons, will be their ideas. Obhrai couldn’t be more right that minority communities need to re-enter the Conservative fold. Squandering the good work done from 2004-2011 was a barbaric cultural practice.
Likewise, the next leader must be credible on the economy, trade and energy. Too many people who trusted Harper on the economy left for Trudeau. They must be won back. Spiralling Liberal deficits will help, but the problems they will leave behind are ambition-limiting.
Some candidates are already swinging for the fences. Promising free trade with China, as Maxime Bernier suggests, is bold but unrealistic, both in that China isn’t interested in “free” trade, and Canadians aren’t comfortable sleeping with the Chinese elephant.
Trade could be the stickiest wicket for the next Conservative leader, especially if the next president sewers the Trans Pacific Partnership. Much of what fuels Trumpism is a lack of economic opportunity and people feeling as though government has shut down their industries, or worse, traded them offshore for future considerations that have yet to materialize.
Canada is a trading nation that can’t afford to retreat. The case is easier to make here, but it’s not an indisputable good. The temptation to pander to the left-behinds will be great, but that’s a job better left to whoever picks up the pieces of the NDP.
Where else can Conservatives look for new support? Where every other opposition has looked since time immemorial: in groups disappointed with the current government. Trudeau has already blowtorched commitments to veterans and indigenous groups. There will be more to come.
The Tories would do well to remember that Trudeau’s core constituency is people who believe in government. If Trudeau’s government disappoints, there is an opportunity to target them, not with a message that government stinks, but that government can be smart when powered and disciplined by the market.
It’s a tricky case to make, one that definitely can’t be trusted to a Trump-like blowhard.