Prime minister surfs shifting political trends
How Trudeau wants to ride the populism wave in a ‘middleclass’ fashion
What a difference a year makes.
Last March, the going political concern was the “middle class,” as evidenced by the Trudeau government’s inaugural budget, titled Growing the Middle Class, which mentioned everybody’s favourite ill-defined group 111 times.
But following a year of Brexit, Donald Trump and a Conservative leadership race that’s fast becoming an exercise in pitchfork size, it’s populism that’s on the move. Thus, Justin Trudeau will adapt his budget efforts to see if he can birth a “populist” middle class.
There is already evidence of significant labour.
In the month following the revelation of his Bahamian adventures with the billionaire Aga Khan, Trudeau took a pass on Davos in favour of a less chi-chi cross-country “listening” tour. He then played nicely with arch-populist Trump. And in Hamburg, Trudeau delivered a speech that lingered on the populist uprisings afflicting western democracies.
What’s Trudeau up to? Shouldn’t delivering for the middle class have rendered the populists moot? Aren’t we all middle class now?
There are four possible answers: 1) We are; 2) We aren’t; 3) Justin Trudeau has failed the middle class; and 4) All of the above.
Mark me down for option No. 4.
Most Canadians see themselves as middle class, even if they aren’t, and Trudeau and his government have exhibited enough elitism, and dug a big enough deficit, that merely repeating the words “middle class” won’t protect the Liberals from the fallout of their entitlement and largesse. Because there has been plenty of both, Trudeau is feeling vulnerable to populism.
We’ve had 24 Sussex renos, subsidized nannies, New Year’s in the Bahamas and mammoth moving expenses (since partially refunded) from Trudeau’s aides. Across the government, there have been mates’ rates on limo rides, excessive photo dosh, and cash-for-access fundraisers aplenty. Not very middle class, eh?
At some point, people will stop and notice things are a long way from sunny. Trudeau suddenly showing populist leg is an admission of that.
Will the heat be enough for Trudeau to change his policies in Budget 2017, or merely the words used to describe them?
Whatever we get, it won’t be wholesale change. No matter how popular populism might be, Trudeau can’t abandon the middle class. He’s invested too much narrative for wholesale policy change.
No, the middle class narrative will remain a key plank for Trudeau. And a versatile one, too, given it’s why we’re told he met secretly with Chinese billionaires after the Liberal party first took $1,500 of their money. Heck, he even got the gilded Trump to say the words (repeatedly) in their joint declaration following their recent Oval Office tête-à-tête.
It’s how Trudeau reframes the middle class that will tell us more about how he sees populism shaping the political climate and how — and perhaps whom — he views as his most likely opponent come 2019.
Given that the beating heart of populism is that emotion trumps fact, I expect the new budget narrative to hammer our feelings to distract from the government’s continued reach into taxpayers’ wallets. If you thought the Trudeau-Obama bromance was special, just wait until our prime minister apes Bill Clinton. There will be pain, and it will be felt.
The benefit of successfully birthing a populist middle class would be twofold. It could dampen any incipient voter anger. And it is also likely to send the Tories further down a populist road they already seem hell-bent on driving. Faux-populist Liberals reckon a genuinely populist (and likely angry) Tory party will make for an easier mark come 2019.
The upcoming budget is a crucial window for Conservatives to frame their opposition to Trudeau. He’s in a fiscal hole and chances are he’s going to keep digging. It should be a chance to bury him.
Here’s the problem: Who speaks for the Tories?
Is it interim leader Rona Ambrose? The front-runner leadership candidates? If so, who are they? We haven’t a clue, as all 14 candidates are still “in” the race, even if most are well out of it, with one supposed contender, Kevin O’Leary, largely out of the country, too.
What will be the Tory budget message? A stout and principled defence of fiscal conservatism, or more tilting at halal windmills?
With so many voices shouting, there’s a good chance the response won’t be heard. And in the din, Trudeau just might be able fashion enough populist wool to pull over middle class eyes.