Byelection shows change stirring in Ottawa-Vanier
Politicians must widen their appeal, Stewart Kiff writes.
On the surface, nothing has changed with Mona Fortier’s win in the Ottawa-Vanier federal byelection Monday. A tradition unbroken since the riding was created in 1935 has been maintained: The new MP is both a Liberal and a Franco- Ontarian.
According to unofficial results, Mona Fortier received 51.2 per cent of the votes cast, confirming the strong base of support the Liberals enjoy in this riding. And clearly Fortier owes part of her decisive majority to the support of francophones.
But under this apparent stability lies a strong undercurrent of change.
Fortier becomes the first woman to represent Ottawa-Vanier at the federal level. Not only that, but her closest contender was also a very strong woman candidate. The NDP’s Emilie Taman garnered some 28 per cent of the votes cast, almost double the 15 per cent support received by the Conservative candidate.
Looking back at the Liberal nomination race held earlier this year, Fortier’s fiercest competition came from three other young, strong and energetic women candidates: Khatera Akbari, Ainsley Malhotra and Véronique Soucy.
Should we conclude that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s efforts in favour of gender parity in the House of Commons are encouraging women to get into politics? Perhaps. But let’s not forget that Ottawa-Vanier has been sending a woman to Queen’s Park since 1999: Claudette Boyer, followed by Madeleine Meilleur and, recently, Nathalie DesRosiers.
Demographics in Ottawa-Vanier are also changing rapidly. The riding has long been home to a large francophone population, but since 1992, the size of this linguistic group has fallen by more than half. Francophones now represent only 30 per cent of the riding’s population. Not only has the relative weight of the Franco-Ontarian population gone down, so have their numbers as they choose to spread out across Ottawa rather than remaining concentrated in the eastern part of the city.
Ottawa-Vanier, with its proximity to the downtown area and its supply of affordable housing, has become a magnet for new Canadians. Today, one in four residents has neither English nor French as his or her mother tongue. Traditionally, the Liberal party has been the most successful in rallying new Canadian communities. The late Mauril Bélanger, former MP for the riding, developed deep loyalties in many of these communities.
Similarly, Fortier and her 400-strong team of volunteers built support across the riding by reaching out not only to francophones, but to all groups.
Can a party other than the Liberals hope to someday represent Ottawa-Vanier? The NDP has made a good effort, presenting a fluently bilingual candidate with strong credentials and running a good campaign with the help of a lot of party supporters who work on the Hill. The Conservatives’ Adrian Papara has few roots in Ottawa-Vanier and chose not to participate in some of the debates because of his inability to speak French. (Indeed, Conservative support went down this time compared to the 19 per cent of votes the party mustered in 2015 in spite of the Liberal wave.)
The increasing diversity in many areas of the country is a challenge for political parties. Effective electoral politics has become more and more of a moving target. Success depends a lot on a party’s capacity to adapt. In OttawaVanier, the Liberal party has achieved something quite remarkable by both remaining true to long-standing tradition while adapting to new realities.
As an NDP insider confessed to me, this has made opposing the Liberal juggernaut in Ottawa-Vanier all the more difficult. He found it quite frustrating to be told by many electors that, even though they liked the NDP candidate and thought she could do the job, they would still be voting Liberal. If Monday’s results are an indication, that won’t be changing any time soon.
Fortier and her 400-strong team of volunteers built support across the riding by reaching out not only to francophones, but to all groups.