Macron victory energizes EU advocates
June vote will decide mandate for reform
MOST PEOPLE REALIZE THAT THE EURO ZONE, AS IT IS, IS NOT SUSTAINABLE.
BRUSSELS • As French president-elect Emmanuel Macron strode to his victory rally to the tune of the European Union’s anthem, EU advocates could scarcely believe their luck: The next French leader had scored an emphatic win embracing a partnership loathed by populist voters across the continent.
His opponent, Euroskeptic Marine Le Pen, could have shattered the European Union, already hit hard by Britain’s decision to file for divorce. Now, though, the EU has a new lease on life, as Macron and other pro-European leaders ready what could be a make-or-break reform effort for a bloc that has suffered repeated blows since the Great Recession in late 2007.
His win is also likely to complicate Britain’s exit negotiations, providing a boost to the representatives of the 27 nations who will sit down later this year with Prime Minister Theresa May to hash out terms.
Macron “bears the hopes of millions of French people, but also of many people in Germany and the whole of Europe,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters Monday.
Macron now faces June legislative elections that will determine his mandate for sweeping reforms in France; if he fails to garner support, his victory Sunday could also prove to be just a temporary reprieve for the EU. The magnitude of his win — 66 per cent of the vote — is offset by many citizens appearing to have voted to keep Le Pen out.
Still, it marked a rare achievement for a candidate who had campaigned on the promise that France could flex its sovereign power through the European Union, rather than in tension with it. Even nominally pro-EU leaders such as centre-right Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte have more typically vowed to protect their citizens from EU overreach — hardly a message that would rejuvenate the beleaguered bloc.
Macron’s win “could lead to a restrengthening of the European Union as a capable actor,” said Sabine von Oppeln, a professor of political science at the Free University of Berlin. “The European Union got away with a black eye . ... Now it has to do something with the election result.”
Macron has outlined an ambitious agenda that would knit together the countries that use the euro currency, through a common eurozone budget and finance minister. He has pushed for a new European unemployment-insurance system, which would mean German taxpayers would underwrite out-of-work Greeks. But he has also expressed support for a buyEuropean-first rule for government purchasing, a protectionist measure that could cheer nationalists.
“Most people realize that the euro zone, as it is, is not sustainable. A new crisis will come,” said Stefan Lehne, a former Austrian diplomat who is a fellow at Carnegie Europe, a think tank.