A battle won, a war remains
ISIL’s demise is reason to celebrate, but hard questions and real threats remain, writes Phil Gurski.
The news coming out of Iraq and Syria is slightly less bad for a change. While wars and violence continue to cause suffering in both nations, at least one terrorist group is on the decline. That group, of course, is Islamic State (ISIL or IS), a particularly barbaric group of violent extremists in the pantheon of terrorist entities. Whether it was the summary execution of thousands, or the rape of Yazidi girls, or any number of other atrocities, ISIL did seem to hit new lows in human depravity.
The good news is that the organization that boasted “baqiyah” – “remaining” in Arabic – is not doing a good job of sticking around and shows every sign of being on the decline. Mosul, which it once terrorized, has all but fallen to Iraqi and U.S.-led coalition forces, Raqqa can’t be that far behind, and the group’s holdings in Syria are under intense pressure from Bashar Assad’s regime and his Russian allies. So much for remaining. Much like the Nazi “1,000-year Reich,” the reign of ISIL is all but done after a scant three years. (Since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced the pseudo “Caliphate” in June 2014, even the mosque where that declaration was made has been destroyed.)
So, three cheers for the demise of ISIL, a truly heinous collection of thugs if there ever was one. With ISIL out of the way, our societies are safer, right? Not so fast.
Not only are there remnants of ISIL in Iraq – as many as 7,000 according to a recent statement by an Iraqi security official – but the group’s influence and reach will continue for some time, even here in Canada.
The main problem with kinetic counter-terrorism (i.e. killing terrorists) is that it is good at removing bodies but not minds. The ideology underpinning everything that ISIL does and stands for is still alive and it may perversely be made stronger by the group’s fall from glory. Ideology is really hard to eliminate, in part because it has elements of truth to it (yes, western forces have invaded Muslim lands and have killed tens of thousands of Muslims) and in part because it provides a framework for both explaining why the Islamic world is in such rough shape and for providing a solution (i.e. fight back).
ISIL’s worldview shares much with that of al-Qaida, once its sworn enemy, and that of myriad other Islamist extremist groups from Nigeria to the Philippines. The task of challenging this mindset, often called the Single (or Common) Narrative, is a long one, with which we have had little success to date.
What does this mean for Canada? Quite simply, no reduction in the threat level which, though moderate, is real. The need for our security intelligence (CSIS) and law enforcement (RCMP and others) agencies to remain vigilant – and well-resourced – has not gone away.
There are at least three manifestations of this threat in a post-ISIL era:
A) Hundreds of Canadians left this country to join ISIL and other terrorist groups. Some have died, some may come home disillusioned, and others may return further radicalized and/or set to carry out attacks here. Figuring out who is who is not an inconsiderable task.
B) There are other conflicts around the world that will act as a draw for radicalized Canadians. We need to prevent our citizens from departing to cause death and destruction elsewhere while acknowledging that those we interdict may turn their attention to us instead.
C) Canadians seem to forget that the single greatest terrorist threat always was (and still is, in my opinion), those who were radicalized in this country, never sought to leave it, and were intent on planning attacks in our backyards.
Even with the focus over the last few years on “high risk travellers” (i.e. foreign terrorist fighters), the domestic danger is always paramount in the minds of CSIS and the RCMP. In light of the likely continuation of such violent ideology, we will see more plots and our protectors will have to remain on their toes.
The terrorist menace to our country is moderate, especially when we compare ourselves to our closest allies (such as the United Kingdom and France), let alone what happens on a daily basis in Somalia and Afghanistan. The terrorist threat level as determined by the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre is still at medium and unlikely to change any time soon, unless new intelligence is collected. We should be happy that terrorism is not a frequent scourge in Canada, but we have to accept that violent extremism is the new normal (the new abnormal?).
In the end, good riddance to bad ISIL rubbish. Causes for celebration in counter-terrorism have been scarce since 9/11 so we should mark this occasion. But as with all parties, it’s best not to overdo it. Phil Gurski is president and CEO of Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting. www.borealisthreatandrisk.com
The ideology underpinning everything that ISIL does and stands for is still alive and it may perversely be made stronger by the group’s fall from glory.