Scheer girds for uphill battle against Liberals
Tories seek to show positive message
WINNIPEG • Andrew Scheer has an uphill battle ahead of him. But that’s what he’s used to.
The 38-year-old Conservative Party leader is preparing to spar with a Teflon prime minister, seven years his senior, who has been in the public spotlight since birth and whose polling numbers barely twitch even after campaign promises are broken.
The man who supporters see as a prime ministerin-waiting has consistently been an underdog in his political career. He was no household name, he said, when first running for federal politics in 2004. In 2011, seeking to be Speaker of the House of Commons, people told him he was too inexperienced, that it wasn’t his time.
“And I was successful then,” he told reporters Friday outside his first caucus retreat as party leader. “So, I’m prepared to do the hard work. I know what’s ahead of me and I’m up for the challenge.”
Deputy Leader Lisa Raitt praised Scheer’s decision to take a cross-country tour over the summer with his wife and five children. “It’s so hard to compare yourself against a guy like Justin Trudeau, who from the day he was born has been in the limelight. Everybody knows who he is, right? So, yes, Andrew is going out there,” she said.
“He’s very likable. He’s very principled. He’s very positive, and he has a great vision for our country that runs counter to what the Liberals are doing. So, you know, let’s give him a chance. Let’s give him a chance and hear what he has to say. Canadians are good people — they’ll do that.”
Scheer, who won the leadership in May with considerable down-ballot support from people who favoured other candidates, is well-known in the Commons and in his province, Saskatchewan. But a big chunk of Canadians still don’t know how they feel about him — or just don’t know him, period.
“We will have time,” said Maxime Bernier, whom Scheer surpassed on the final leadership ballot. “We’ll be in the House, and we’ll have the opportunity to have more visibility. And so I’m not so concerned about that.”
Politicos often expect a bump in support for a party after it elects a new leader. This didn’t happen for Scheer. Polls consistently show Liberals in the lead by 11 or 12 percentage points over the Conservatives, and approval ratings for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are holding steady.
Opinions on Scheer don’t appear to have really formed yet.
An Abacus Data poll of 1,512 Canadians, taken online at the beginning of September, found 19 per cent of respondents had positive feelings about the new Conservative leader, and 18 per cent had negative feelings. (The margin of error: 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.)
A Mainstreet Research/ Postmedia telephone poll released Friday shows Scheer with a 34 per cent approval rating. That compares with 55 per cent for Trudeau, 36 per cent for outgoing New Democrat Leader Tom Mulcair and 35 per cent for Green Leader Elizabeth May.
While Scheer has the lowest approval rating of the bunch, he also has the most room for growth, with 39 per cent of 2,000 respondents reporting they were unsure about him. (The margin of error: 2.19 per cent, 19 times out of 20.)
Tories are looking to let go of the past and find opportunities to make themselves a positive alternative to the Liberals. Those gathered in Winnipeg this week were fired up by what they see as a golden opportunity to demonstrate that.
“Nothing is more important” than the controversial tax changes Finance Minister Bill Morneau is now trying to sell, Scheer said in a Friday news conference.
Conversations on the margins of the caucus meeting kept returning to the spirited backlash from doctors, farmers and others whose incorporated small businesses would be affected by a Liberal plan to crack down on tax avoidance and, ostensibly, increase fairness. Specific legislation is not yet on the table as Liberals conduct a crosscountry consultation. One member of the Conservative caucus pointed out this is occurring during the harvest, and farmers won’t have time to participate.
Some Conservatives see the plan as an ideological attack on entrepreneurs; others simply see it as a scheme for Liberals to gain government revenue and increase spending in other areas. Tories agree on one thing, though: the issue is hitting home with enough Canadians that it will remain politically salient for a while.
“Will it stick? Absolutely,” said Raitt. “Every single Liberal MP is going to hear about this between now and 2019, if they don’t back out.”
The jury’s out on whether other attack points will gain traction.
One of two other headline issues Scheer will focus on in the Commons this autumn, a settlement of $10.5 million to former Guantanamo Bay prisoner Omar Khadr earlier this summer, outraged many Canadians but not enough to nudge polling numbers.
The other big topic is an influx of migrants crossing into Canada from the United States, an issue Conservatives say is badly managed and exacerbated by Trudeau’s welcoming rhetoric toward refugees.
Party positions aren’t so different under Scheer from what they were under Stephen Harper or interim leader Rona Ambrose. If there is a shift, it’s in tone. “It’s not doom and gloom,” Raitt explained.
“We have such a great, aspirational, positive message,” Scheer said. “I love looking forward.”
LET’S GIVE HIM A CHANCE AND HEAR WHAT HE HAS TO SAY. CANADIANS ARE GOOD PEOPLE — THEY’LL DO THAT.