TROTTING OUT TRUDEAU
PM’s charm offensive signals trouble
How do you attack a government that does little, but looks great doing it?
When Justin Trudeau starts featuring his softer attributes, there’s a good chance something of substance is being savaged.
Of late, that something has been the proposed changes to small business taxes, which have even drawn the ire of Trudeau’s treasured tech industry.
As if on cue, and quicker than you can say “Because it’s 2015,” Trudeau sat down opposite former Daily Beast editor Tina Brown for an “armchair discussion” on gender equality — his second discussion with Brown on the topic in five months — before jetting off for an appearance at the Come From Away “forum” (read: a critically acclaimed Broadway show turned 9/11 memorial event) in Newfoundland.
The two bits of soft theatre did their trick, earning Trudeau some positive press, although not enough to quell a new queasiness, this time over the government’s plans to legalize marijuana, or, rather, the lack thereof.
While it’s too early to say the pot plan is a bust, the early returns aren’t good. If Trudeau shows up in a boxing ring without his shirt on in the next week or so, we’ll know the government truly isn’t on track for its legal high.
More worryingly for Trudeau and his deep bag of soft tricks, the marijuana file is just one of many his team will need to bring home as it sets its sights on re-election; the government that loves to study, consult and market itself needs to start delivering.
The wins have been disappointingly few for a majority government with tremendous public appeal. Yes, the Liberals have kept their promises to hike taxes on the rich, to hike payroll taxes, bring in carbon taxes and eliminate a raft of Harper-era tax credits.
But even with all of these extra hands in Canadian pockets, and even if the Liberals get the extra revenue from their small business tax changes, Trudeau won’t be anywhere near even beginning to dream of balancing his budget. And that’s with a booming economy.
No doubt one of the items at the recent Liberal cabinet retreat was looking at how the current budget track holds under a host of dark scenarios: If inflation jumps and the Bank of Canada goes hiking; if Donald Trump decides he needs an easy “win” and terminates NAFTA; or if Kim Jong Un decides the West Coast of North America is due for target practice.
Even if none of these worsts happen, it’s not clear this government can or wants to turn off the taps, as evidenced by the latest jaw-dropper: a rumoured $6.4-billion purchase of 18 “stopgap” F-18 fighter jets.
Money isn’t the only problem; there are also a whack of tough political knots for cabinet to cut through.
Veterans Affairs has a new minister but hasn’t managed enough new action. The same goes for Indigenous affairs.
Trouble abounds with procurement (writ large), and with government IT projects, such as Phoenix and email consolidation. And don’t forget illegal border crossings and the pressures on the immigration system.
There is also a tough legislative slog ahead for the new anti-terror regime. With the clock ticking toward 2019, will the government need to be heavy-handed in jamming through this and other bills in order to say it has a strong legislative record? With all of these tough files in play, I’d rather sit down for on-brand pleasantries with Tina Brown, too.
If past is prologue, this government will open Canadians’ chequebooks to buy time and peace. But it will also frame that spending in terms meant to bait Conservatives into fury.
Any opposition to spending will be “mean-spirited” or “divisive.”
Any complaint about competence will be parried by hearts being in the right place.
And any Conservative anger will be reflected back to Canadians through the prism of Donald Trump’s horror show version of conservatism.
Therein lies the conundrum for Conservatives.
If people like a government that does little but sounds nice and looks good doing it, the Conservatives need to have a good think about which end of that clause to criticize.
The Liberals have certainly mastered which part of it to emphasize.
As they try to come to grips with the challenges of their agenda, the Liberals will double down on branding it to their advantage. Every last drop of soft power will be applied. They will Vogue. They will film fest.
They will hop on every panel where issues such as gender equality, the environment and fairness are being discussed.
Here, Justin Trudeau remains the Liberals’ best asset. As long as Trump exists, Trudeau will remain the darling of the foreign intelligentsia whose cues Canadians still take.
The tougher things get, the more we’ll see Trudeau being Trudeau. Andrew MacDougall is a Londonbased communications consultant and was director of communications to former prime minister Stephen Harper.