‘Headway’ being made on TPP without U.S.

OTTAWA • A Trans-Pacific Partnership excluding the U.S. won’t be firmed up in time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s visit to Asia next week, a Liberal government official familiar with the matter said.

There is a worry within the Canadian government about putting the proverbial TPP cart before the NAFTA horse, in the official’s words, although one isn’t necessarily “contingent” on the other. That’s a concern shared by Mexico, a partner in both agreements.

Fraught talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement seem unlikely to result in a revamped text by the end of the year, as Canadian, American and Mexican ministers had originally said they hoped. Neither does it appear a rejigged TPP, which some worry could affect NAFTA supply chains, can be delivered by the holidays.

U.S. President Donald Trump nixed his country’s participation in the 12-nation trade deal, signed in 2016, as soon as he came into office at the beginning of this year. The commentariat declared the free trade agreement, which also includes vast chapters on regulatory alignment, labour and more, dead on arrival.

Officials from most countries signalled the same, at first. But negotiations recently ramped up for a “TPP-11” after trade officials tested the waters with talks in Canada and Japan earlier this year. In October, the government quietly held a public consultation, targeted mostly at industry, on a revamped TPP.

Japan had hoped leaders would be able to announce an agreement in principle by next week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam, which Trudeau is attending. But although there is eagerness for trade diversification on the Canadian side too, negotiators are still working to narrow down which parts of the TPP could be suspended, or appended with side letters, to reflect the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement.

An example brought up both by the Canadian official and by Japanese diplomats in recent conversations with the Post is to freeze a chapter dealing with intellectual property, on which the U.S. had achieved major concessions. This could be viewed, the Japanese ambassador explained to the Post last month, as an incentive for the Americans to jump back in.

There is goodwill. The official described Japan, Australia and Singapore in particular as “keen.” Some “real headway” is being made, they said, but likely not quickly enough for a photoop in Vietnam.

“It will take a little more time for us to get to where we need to get to,” said the official. “We’re trying to advocate for our interests and I think people recognize that and will allow some runway for that.”

More likely at the summit is an announcement that will outline broad agreement on key elements of the deal and some reference to remaining steps in the process.