Our family evenly split in the pipeline feud

We’ve all witnessed enough family fights to know that when the siblings go at it, they’re simultaneously keeping tongues focused on the insults and eyes focused on which relatives are nodding in agreement.

After weeks of watching the ongoing war of words, political will (and even wine), it turns out the Canadian family is perfectly split about which side to take between British Columbia and Alberta over the twinning of the Kinder Morgan TransMountain pipeline.

To recap, the British Columbia government — led by an NDP premier — has moved to delay, if not derail, the twinning of an existing pipeline running from Alberta to Metro Vancouver. Among other things, B.C. argues the project would increase tanker traffic off Vancouver sevenfold, thus increasing the risk of an oil spill along the Pacific coastline.

In turn, the Alberta government — also led by an NDP premier — argues that much-needed jobs and resource revenues will flow into the province and indeed the country if more of that province’s oil is allowed to flow out of a new pipeline.

How very Canadian that when it comes to this Rocky Mountain rumble, public opinion splits evenly on the question of which argument is more persuasive. Half of Canadians give points to B.C. — the other half sides with Alberta, according to the latest poll from the Angus Reid Institute.

One might conclude that in this battle for hearts and minds, a draw equals a win for both sides. Regardless of whether premiers Rachel Notley and John Horgan actually believe in what they’re saying, politically speaking, both must retreat and dig in to their respective corners to stay alive politically.

In Alberta, where nearly 80 per cent support the pipeline, Notley has no choice but to fight hammer and tongs to see the project completed. In a province where Jason Kenney and the United Conservative Party are already well ahead in the polls, anything less would represent failure.

The B.C. premier, presiding over a minority government, walks a finer line. Almost half of British Columbians (48 per cent) actually support seeing the pipeline twinned, while twoin-five oppose it. (Indeed, the highest level of opposition to the project is in Quebec.)

The problem for Horgan is that the strongest, most concentrated level of opposition is found in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island — parts of the province that turned out big for his party last May. Lukewarm support for the pipeline likely won’t win him any right-of-centre votes. But having already said yes to another major energy project, the Site C hydroelectric dam, anything less than indignant, fervent opposition to the pipeline could easily send his own party hardliners to the Greens, who hold the balance of power.

While the “kids” duke it out, the one squirming at the table is Dad, in this case the Trudeau government. As the family member in this dispute with final say, Trudeau’s cabinet signed off on the project, and vows it will be completed. But there’s little comfort knowing only the slimmest of majority of Canadians overall (53 per cent) actually think the federal government should have jurisdiction on this issue.

Then there are the political risks. In 2015, British Columbia voters gave the federal Liberals a breakthrough boost to his majority win. Now, nearly half of those same voters think his government shouldn’t be the final arbiter in this dispute and are inclined to support the B.C. NDP’s gambit to delay and disrupt.

If this causes any misery to Trudeau, however, he’ll likely be in good company. In the midst of this left-on-left action, federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is unable to take a side, and may ultimately be unable to capitalize on any West Coast discontent with Trudeau.

Whatever punches Notley and Horgan may land on each other, or their federal counterparts, there is one thing that unites the people of their provinces: The same proportion of Albertans and British Columbians (61 per cent each) think that whatever the war of words, chances are this pipeline will be twinned. Even in the midst of this bitter family fight, both sides seem to accept that Prime Minister Dad will prevail.