IS KARLSSON STILL AN MVP, OR DAMAGED GOODS?
Defenceman was best player in hockey last year, but isn’t even close this season
It would be easier for the Ottawa Senators to stick with Erik Karlsson if they knew which version they were getting for the next few years.
The Karlsson who led the team through the 2016-17 regular season and in a surprising playoff run was the most valuable player in the NHL, both because of the position he played and the way he played it. He was the league’s best defensive defenceman, totally dedicated to a team system and sacrificing himself in his own zone, and he still managed to be one of three blue-liners to record more than 70 points.
That Karlsson set an example others followed all the way to the doorstep of the Stanley Cup final. That Karlsson is one the Senators would have to hitch their wagon to … at any cost.
The 2017-18 Karlsson, however, does not appear to be the same guy.
He looks more like the 2015-16 version of himself. He is all over the ice, as if he has given up on the game plan.
Maybe he figures the only way the low-scoring Senators can put the puck in the net is if he is doing most of the generating. Maybe he doesn’t want to pay the price in the defensive zone because blocking shots means he could take one on his surgically repaired ankle.
Maybe he has lost belief in head coach Guy Boucher.
Maybe, like Daniel Alfredsson before him, he doesn’t like where the team is headed under this ownership.
Who knows, maybe he’s trying to play his way out of town.
Whatever the reason, the change in his approach has had devastating effects. The Senators have become one of the worst teams in the league primarily because their goaltending has let them down, but let’s be fair here. Other players are not as smart or protective around their own net, either.
The captain is setting the tone there, too.
While William Karlsson of the Vegas Golden Knights leads the NHL with a plus-35 rating, Erik Karlsson’s minus-28 ranks him 835th of 837 registered players. In this case, the category and the number are true indicators.
Apologists are blaming a missed training camp, the injury, his ice time. It’s laughable. They are either not being honest or know no better. The only plausible excuse is Karlsson doesn’t have the same strength in his ankle, which explains why he loses more board battles than before.
But, curiously, it doesn’t stop him from jumping into the up-ice rush with as much force as ever.
In any case, the Karlsson we’ve seen two of the last three seasons is not the one you want eating up one-sixth of your budget for the next half-dozen or so years.
That Karlsson is one the Senators have to trade when they feel they can maximize the return.
That could very well be now, when he could be had for two more playoff runs under his current contract.
As someone who covers the Senators, I care less about the results than the entertainment value. I like Karlsson. I want him around. He can be as much fun to talk with as he is to watch play.
But, if I’m trying to build a winner, I’m playing the odds with No. 65. I don’t like two out of three when its stacked against me.
I’m moving him if I can use him as a chip to address enough needs, including goaltender.
Here’s the conundrum: Trading Karlsson is going to infuriate a vast number of fans. They are going to go crazy. They are going to threaten. They are going to revolt.
If owner Eugene Melnyk thinks he has attendance problems now, he ain’t seen nothing yet.
He just might get so frustrated that he sells the team.
Before making a final decision with Karlsson, though, general manager Pierre Dorion will have had a long chat with him. That sit-down probably happened either before Karlsson’s name skyrocketed to the top of the TSN trade bait board or at the very least on Thursday afternoon, before the Senators played host to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
What must be determined is not so much what Karlsson will be looking for in terms of dollars and term on a new deal — that is presumed — but rather exactly what he is feeling about the coach, the owner and the team’s future.
What has to be determined is why Karlsson has reverted back to his former self.
If it really is his ankle, that poses a different dilemma. Can he get back to where he once was or will you be paying for his past while spending top dollar to buy permanently damaged goods?
Not even the habitually honest Karlsson will know the answer to that one, so the decision turns into one very big gamble.
Meanwhile, the odds are stacked high against the Senators. Dealing Karlsson would be a very gutsy move by Dorion.
It would turn off the fans and, for the foreseeable future, worsen the product.
But the lose-lose scenario now — with a generational player who should fetch a mammoth return — could ultimately turn the Senators into winners.