Populist politics push Italian voters right
Outcome could result in weeks of political haggling
ROME • Election projections in Italy early Monday showed a centre-right coalition that includes an antimigrant party edging past the populist 5-Star Movement, but no single bloc or party with the support to win a majority in Parliament.
If confirmed by official results, the outcome could set the stage for weeks of political haggling to forge a new government
An RAI State TV projection from Sunday’s election showed the centre-right bloc in front with 35.5 per cent and the centre-left, which includes the Democratic Party leading the current government, lagging at 23 per cent.
The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement had 32.5 per cent.
Another projection that looked only at how parties fared had the 5-Star Movement snagging 31.8 per cent of the vote, but far from the threshold it needed to form a government.
The anti-immigrant, euroskeptic League of Matteo Salvini had 15.9 per cent of the vote and its main centreright partner, former Premier Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, came in at 14.2 per cent. The Democratic Party had just 19.6 per cent.
“Despite a stronger than expected performance, the M5S (Five-Stars) are still far away from securing an absolute majority,” Wolfango Piccoli, a London-based analyst with Teneo Intelligence, wrote.
Piccoli noted that Berlusconi and Salvini had forged a “gentleman’s agreement” stating that if their bloc secured a majority of the vote, whichever of their parties received more support could pick Italy’s next premier.
Berlusconi cannot hold public office now due to a tax fraud conviction and tapped European Parliament President Antonio Tajani as his choice for premier. Salvini wants the job for himself.
Like Piccoli, other analysts said the election appeared to have dealt Italy a hung Parliament — and weeks or even months of political negotiations to line up a governing coalition of rival forces appeared likely.
Political analyst Lorenzo Codogno of London-based LC Macro Advisors commented: “Financial markets are likely to take these figures negatively.” He added that a hung Parliament would make it “extremely difficult for a narrow mainstream coalition to have the numbers to govern.”
How the seats ultimately are sorted out could determine if Italy is swept up in the euroskeptic and far-right sentiment that has emerged in much of Europe.
The campaigning in Italy was marked by neo-fascist rhetoric and anti-migrant violence that culminated in a shooting spree last month that targeted African migrants and injured six.
The 5-Star Movement in principle opposes allying with other parties in government and wants to rule alone, if it wins its first premiership. But the 5-Stars’ candidate for premier, 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, has shown some openness to potential partners.
One of his chief aides, Alessandro Di Battista, in exultant remarks to supporters early Monday, indicated they were open to talking to potential government partners.
With Salvini gunning for the premiership himself, some pro-European analysts had envisioned a possible “nightmare scenario” of an extremist alliance among the 5-Stars, the League and the right-wing Brothers of Italy.
Steve Bannon, right-wing populist architect of Donald Trump’s White House campaign, was in Rome this weekend, cheering on the populists.
“I think if they create a coalition among all the populists it would be fantastic, it would terrify Brussels and pierce it in its heart,” Bannon was quoted as saying in Sunday’s Corriere della Sera newspaper.
Some polling stations faced ballot delivery problems and all had new timeconsuming anti-fraud measures in place that created bottlenecks at many stations.
“You feel as if you have gone there prepared, but it’s not that clear,” Sister Vincenza complained as she cast her ballot on Rome’s Aventine hill before heading to Mass. More than 46 million people were eligible to vote, including Italians abroad who already mailed in their ballots.
With unemployment at 10.8 per cent and economic growth in the eurozone’s third-largest economy lagging the average, many Italians have all but given up hope for change. Polls indicated a third hadn’t decided or weren’t even sure they would vote.