THE WHOLE RUSSIA MESS
Putin’s at centre of a storm
To a crime that could only have been committed by Russia, democratic governments can respond in any number of ways. Many responses would be justified. Few can be counted on to inspire better behaviour. A few might inspire much worse.
Countries can issue statements that unequivocally condemn Russia’s unacceptable attack on British soil — an attack in which Sergei Skripal, a former Russian double agent, and his daughter, Yulia, were poisoned with Novichok, a nerve agent, on March 4. Europe, Canada and eventually, sort of, the United States did just that this week. Whether or not Russia is intimidated by stern words, they have the advantage of signalling to people everywhere that democratic governments value the rule of law; they have the disadvantage of making democratic governments look weak if words are not accompanied by action.
Countries can expel Russian diplomats and cut off high-level contacts. The United Kingdom kicked 23 officials out this week; during the Cold War, it kicked out even more. But back then, Russia expelled an equal number of British officials and will probably do the same now. It is sometimes said expelling diplomats “sends a message,” but this is a message with an easy retort.
Countries can boycott the World Cup. This choice has much to recommend it as it punishes Russia, but not disproportionately so; however, it is a choice not terribly likely to be made even by the country that has just been attacked, for British football fans would not be pleased to be punished along with the culprit.
Countries can reveal damaging information about Russian oligarchs, diplomats or spies. But Russia has already shown itself eager to not only reveal information about Western politicians and journalists, but to spread disinformation about them. Retaliation should be expected.
Countries can carry out cyber attacks against Russia. While Western security experts were raising this very possibility, the United States accused Russia of having committed cyber attacks against American and European nuclear power plants. So if this possibility is pursued again, retaliation — for Western retaliation, that is — should be expected.
Countries can beef up sanctions against Russia. But even if a government accepts that sanctions work — and with President Vladimir Putin enjoying 80 per cent approval ratings, they do not always work as well as we might wish — countries such as Germany, dependent on Russian gas, are having trouble simply maintaining those sanctions they have already implemented.
Countries can penalize Russia by taking action through the United Nations. Except, unfortunately, they almost certainly can’t: Russia has a Security Council veto.
Instead, NATO members can take collective action against Russia. Though the present situation is dangerous, it is not so violent that they should escalate the violence. They may, however, build up their military presence in Eastern Europe; unfortunately, Russia is not shy about making its own presence known there, too.
Most, if not all, of these actions can be justified on the grounds of punishing thuggery. Can each be justified on the grounds of preventing more of it, though? Russia, a passive-aggressive bully, acts out and then blames the acted-upon. That doesn’t mean Western states should do nothing, but they should understand the cost of punishing this offender is to validate the lie it is they who cause the greatest offence. The lie of a Western conspiracy helps keep Putin popular and in power.
In this sense, then, some effective responses to Russia may disregard Russia entirely. Western states can focus on themselves: protect voter databases, party databases, voter registration processes and elections results reporting processes from whatever hypothetical hostile power might try to sabotage them, for one; strengthen the legitimacy of their democratic institutions in the face of whatever hypothetical hostile power might mock them, for another.
Putin is looking for a fight. He certainly deserves a big one. Still, Western states should consider how they might withhold that from him most effectively without taking too many more serious hits themselves.