HOPING TO HIT THE JACKPOT
Sens, fans wishing for No. 1 pick in today’s lottery
So, the Ottawa Senators have a chance to win the lottery.
There wasn’t a whole lot for Ottawa hockey fans to get excited about after a 30th place finish, but all eyes will be on the CBC studios in Toronto on Saturday night when the results of the NHL’s draft lottery are announced. Picks No. 4 to No. 15 will be revealed at 7:30 p.m., then the top three in the second intermission of the San Jose-Vegas game at around 9:30 p.m.
While the Buffalo Sabres will have the best odds at winning with an 18.5 per cent chance, the Senators won’t be far behind at 13.5 per cent while the Arizona Coyotes are third at 11.5 per cent. Th Senators can’t slip any lower than the No. 5 pick and even if they fall, they’ll get a pretty good player.
Nobody should expect whoever the Senators select in the first round of the NHL draft in Dallas on June 22 to be a saviour for the franchise overnight.
The Senators have the option to send their No. 1 pick to the Colorado Avalanche as part of the Matt Duchene deal either this year or in 2019. However, general manager Pierre Dorion has declared he’s “99.9 per cent certain” he’ll keep the pick because he feels there is an opportunity this year to land an impact player.
“They’re going to get a good player for sure and it’s going to be a player that’s going to impact on their team in the future,” Dan Marr, the NHL’s director of Central Scouting, told Postmedia earlier this week.
“To project an 18-year-old to come in and carry the freight at the NHL level, that depends on the composition of teams, the maturity of the player — his physical maturity. I saw Patrick Kane in the summer after he was drafted and I saw him in the hallway in shorts and a T-shirt, and I’m thinking, ‘There’s no way this scrawny kid is going to play in the NHL next year’ and there he was.
“I really don’t know if that’s fair to anticipate an 18-year-old to step into the National Hockey League but, as we know, every year it happens. It’s not always the top guys, sometimes it’s the guys like Ryan O’Reilly, for example, who go a little later on.”
While the CSB ranks players as North American and International skaters along with goaltenders, there isn’t much debate that Swedish defenceman Rasmus Dahlin will be the No. 1 overall selection, no matter who wins the lottery when the results are announced by deputy commissioner Bill Daly.
Where this draft will get interesting is what happens after No. 1 and that’s why Dorion has spent the last couple of months trying to get a look at the club’s top 10 rated players. He wants to have a good feel for what this crop of players is going to look like.
There are no guarantees the Senators will get Dahlin and if you look at the way the lottery is structured, there’s an 86.5 per cent chance they won’t get the top pick. The NHL is trying to protect against teams tanking for No. 1 overall and that’s why this draft lottery is heavily weighted.
“It’s a pretty good crop, but there’s no way to come up with an order here because they’re all different — yet similar — in their projection values,” Marr said.
Marr said the threshold may be around the No. 7 selection and that’s where it’s going to be tough to predict the order. He anticipates there will be eight to 10 European players in the first round, but noted with the depth of talent available, many teams could take several different routes from No. 8 to No. 31.
“It’s deep in the sense that there’s not a lot of separation in the potential that you’re going to get in these prospects because there’s all kinds of players that are available in this range in every position and every style,” Marr said.
“I can read you off positives for all these players and not too many of them have big parts of their games that need to be corrected for them to have success. Today’s player is a lot more educated as to what it takes, how to prepare and how to train and look after themselves. You still have the fact that some 18-yearolds are going on 16 years old and some are going on 25 years old.”
A deep draft bodes well for Ottawa because the club also has the Penguins’ first-round pick as part of the deal that sent centre Derick Brassard to Pittsburgh before the Feb. 26 trade deadline. The club also acquired Swedish top prospect goalie Filip Gustavsson in that exchange.
Sure, that pick could fall as low as No. 31 if the Penguins go on to win their third straight Stanley Cup this spring. However, the Senators could score themselves a strong prospect that will suit up for them down the road.
“They potentially could get a player that they still have in their top 15 because every team’s list this year will be based on their draft philosophy and their own determination of the best player available,” Marr said.
“What I’m saying is the names that you’re looking at here can be all over the place, so a lot of teams are going to get players at a spot in the draft where they probably had them ranked much higher on their list. I think the lists between the 31 teams are just going to be that divergent.” Why is that the case?
“The calibre of the players is pretty good,” Marr added. “The draft does weaken when you get past the first 50 to 60 names, and it does weaken dramatically, but in the first round and into the second round there’s a lot of players that are going to be very good NHL players.
“It just comes into the eye of the beholder and what they’re looking for at that time. A team like Ottawa that has multiple picks may have addressed the best player at a certain position that (they were) looking for at the first pick and (they) may have some play with what (they’re) going to do with that second pick. You’re not necessarily going to follow your plan to a tee. You may take another player at the same position just because he’s ranked so high on your list and you didn’t think he’d be available when you were making that second pick in the first round.”
A QUICK TAKE ON FIVE TOP PROSPECTS
Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda, Sweden
Ht: 6-foot-2 Wt: 181 pounds MARR SAYS: “He’s already a pro in his approach. He’s a high character and high compete athlete. When you look at the way he can skate, plus his size and strength, it all comes together to be a package that’s going to ooze success. You never see him get flustered. He’s got that poise that comes with maturity as well and he’s got compete to his game. He’s got some nasty to him ... He’s a pretty complete player”
Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie Colts (OHL)
Ht: 6-foot-2 Wt: 188 pounds MARR SAYS: “He started in the USHL and he’s acclimatized to the North American lifestyle. That’s completely different than when you grow up in certain parts of Europe or Russia. He’s learned how to play the game on the smaller North American rink and he’s had success over here playing with Barrie and he’s found out what it takes to have success at the OHL level.”
Filip Zadina, RW, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
Ht: 6-foot Wt: 195 pounds
MARR SAYS: “He may have the best finishing ability of the players in this draft class. We’re talking a guy like Brett Hull and (Alex) Ovechkin — he can finish. That’s where he stood out at the world juniors. He’s got this uncanny ability with his hockey sense to be open and be in the right place at the right time. He’s a hard worker, he plays a twoway game and he’s responsible without the puck.”
Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University (NCAA)
Ht: 6-foot-3 Wt: 196 pounds MARR SAYS: “If you ask his dad (Keith) and his brother (Matthew) they’ll say that Brady could be the best of the bunch. He’s a pretty complete pack because he’s got the skill assets and the physical assets. That’s what sets him apart from some of the other players right now. He can make the plays at top speed and when he can win those one-on-one battles when he’s being checked. He’s got the power forward game.”
Evan Bouchard, D, London Knights (OHL)
Ht: 6-foot-2 Wt: 193 pounds MARR SAYS: “I tell everyone he has eyes in the back of his head with moving the puck, making the first pass out of his zone, making the pass under pressure, making the pass after being checked, this kid has that game and he never gets flustered. You get criticism that he’s never in a hurry, but he doesn’t have to be to make plays.”