LRT plan survives trip through BS cycle of Ontario politics
Projects this large take years, during which politicians make multiple funding promises
The Progressive Conservatives will contribute the $1 billion in provincial money Ottawa needs for the next phase of its light-rail plans, leader Doug Ford promised publicly on Tuesday.
He was answering a warning from Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne that money her government has promised for years isn’t locked in, a mundane statement of fact that blew up into an election issue thanks to political spin, a quick headline and the fact we have about half a dozen elections in the time it takes to build one consequential transit project.
First, the promise: “The people of Ottawa can count on me to build transit,” Ford said in a written statement. “The Ontario PCs are fully committed to moving forward with Phase 2 of the Ottawa LRT.”
This is the extension of the soon-to-open first rail line between Tunney’s Pasture and Blair Road. The larger second phase is to connect to Moodie Drive and Baseline station in the west and Trim Road in the east, and extend the existing O -Train south to the airport and Riverside South. Construction starts in 2019, pretty much as soon as the first phase is done, but it can’t go without provincial (and federal) money.
In 2014, Tim Hudak, then the Progressive Conservative leader, said flatly — but mistakenly — that if he were elected premier a Tory government wouldn’t pay its share, effectively killing the project. He reversed himself hastily, making a special trip to Ottawa a couple of days later to undo the damage. Four years later, we’re talking about the exact same billion-dollar commitment.
The money has been promised often. Politicians have had so many gaudy announcements I’ve lost count. The federal government promised its billion in a letter in 2015 and again in a public event a week later in case we missed it. Then, because those commitments came from Conservatives, Justin Trudeau promised the same billion last year.
Any normal person would think the money is sitting in a city account by now.
That’s not how any of this works. Funding a big transit project is a long, delicate process. Politicians circle each other like teenagers at a dance, making eyes, looking away, getting a little closer, drifting apart. Until they fall into each other’s arms while the DJ plays his last song, nothing is definite.
For the LRT, nobody has signed a binding “contribution agreement,” as it’s called, because that just doesn’t happen until Stairway to Heaven is on.
Which is more or less what Wynne said in Ottawa on Monday, answering a question at a public event.
“You have promised $1 billion for LRT Phase 2. Could, theoretically, could it be cancelled by Mr. Ford? Or is it firm?” Radio-Canada’s Gilles Taillon asked.
“In a run-up to an election — and I’ve experienced this a few times now — people always want to come and say, ‘Can you make sure that this doesn’t change? Just in case you don’t get elected, can we make sure this doesn’t change?’ And my answer always has to be no. We cannot guarantee what another government would do,” Wynne said.
Ford could walk away. Any provincial government could. If a governing party could commit irrevocably to spending they’d make binding 50-year plans and then it wouldn’t matter who got in. The point of elections is we can vote in parties that aren’t bound by previous governments’ promises.
On Monday, Wynne went on to allege that Ford has pledged not to send provincial money to cities unless they make cuts to their budgets, which was not correct. He has said he wants to make sure cities aren’t wasting money before he gives them any more. That suggests intrusive supervision of elected city councils, but it’s not the same as demanding cuts.
Ford did promise Mayor Jim Watson his support for the rail project in a closed-door meeting two weeks ago, a chat the two men didn’t publicize. He said it to my colleague Jonathan Willing after, too. Possibly Wynne missed the one tweet about it that constitutes the public record of the commitment.
Wynne’s answer became a CBC story headlined “Liberal loss could leave LRT money in limbo, Wynne warns.” True enough. Torqued up into a much bigger deal than it really is, but factually accurate.
Which, in turn, became an element in Ford’s statement: “Grasping at straws, Kathleen Wynne fabricated a story that a new government would cancel the Ottawa LRT,” the Tories said, falsely.
The LRT costs billions and will define where Ottawans live and work and how we get around for generations. But the fact that we go through multiple elections in three levels of government in the time it takes to plan things on this scale makes them exceptionally vulnerable. Politicians who care about the people and places they govern shouldn’t jam things that big and important through their BS machines.