How Ford Nation walked into office of the premier

Doug Ford now needs to tackle some serious policy challenges

Despite Doug Ford’s highly unfavourable ratings, despite a lawsuit from his sister-in-law, despite an uncosted, vague platform, nothing shook Ontario voters from the change they sought.

But why Ford? Why not Andrea Horwarth, who, like the Las Vegas Golden Knights, outperformed expectations only to fall short in the final round?

Indeed, Ford, who emerged the winner of a hasty, messy Progressive Conservative leadership race following Patrick Brown’s even messier ouster in January, was viewed by Ontarians with a jaded eye. Six-in-10 people surveyed regarded him unfavourably — only slightly better than the two-thirds (66 per cent) who held an adverse opinion of Kathleen Wynne.

Polling in the spring showed Ford to be the most risky choice of leadership candidate compared to opponents Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney. But despite all this, Ford’s party was seen as best to form government. One-third of Ontarians said so, compared to just over one-quarter (27 per cent) who said the same of the NDP.

The New Democrats briefly captured attention and imagination, leaping from playing potential spoiler among the part of the electorate that leans left-of-centre, to possible government-in-waiting. Horwath’s party was the second choice of more voters than were the Liberals or Conservatives; her party had room to grow, while the Conservative base was maxed out.

So what happened? NDP momentum wasn’t enough to assuage older Ontario voters — some of whom were still in therapy over the Bob Rae years as NDP premier. And lingering questions over the depth and commitment of the NDP vote proved astute. While more than half of declared PC voters (60 per cent) said they were “absolutely certain” about the party they would choose, only about one-quarter (27 per cent) of declared NDP voters said the same.

Then there was the love/ hate factor. In a campaign largely defined by antipathy and indifference toward the choices on offer, a unique phenomenon emerged: Ontario voters evenly split between a motivation to block a party they dislike from taking over and a motivation to propel a party they really like into power.

Not since the 2016 Trump-Clinton election have we seen such dynamics. Donald Trump ultimately prevailed on the strength of slightly more voters in key states wanting to vote against Clinton, rather than for him. So it may be that Ford — like Trump, the heir of a wealthy family, a man who ran for office as a populist on a paper-thin policy platform — carried the day with the help of those voters who cast their ballots against a progressive government, rather than for his Progressive Conservatives.

In a race this tight, turnout mattered more than ever, and time may show turnout favoured the Conservatives.

With a significant majority mandate, it would appear Ford will have an opportunity to define more clearly what exactly he has in mind for Ontario, beyond buck-a-beer.

The mantle is his. It’s now up to Ford and his nation to grapple with the daunting policy challenges facing Ontario. Blaming the former Kathleen Wynne administration will no longer be enough.

If we can declare another winner in this race, it’s Justin Trudeau. His federal Liberals have been dragged down for months by anti-Wynne sentiment, giving Andrew Scheer and the Conservative Party of Canada even or better odds in the event a federal election were held today.

With Ford’s victory in Ontario, and given his poor favourability documented throughout the campaign, it could well be Scheer’s party dragged down by an unpopular premier in Canada’s largest province come the federal election in October 2019.

For now, the Progressive Conservatives will just be happy to be sharing the joy of victory with the Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals. Meanwhile, the NDP, Liberals and 30 other NHL squads will have to regroup for another season.