BREAKING DOWN THE FINAL FOUR
10 factors that could help determine who meets in the 2018 World Cup final
Thirty-two teams were entered. Now just four teams remain at this World Cup.
We offer 10 talking points that could define Belgium vs. France on Tuesday night in Saint Petersburg and England vs. Croatia on Wednesday in Moscow.
Will Belgium’s golden generation finally produce, or will Les Bleus make amends for what happened at the 2016 Euros?
Will Croatia do one better than its famous 1998 squad, or is football finally “coming home?”
Here’s what we’re thinking ahead of the Final Four.
1.
Will Pickford’s form eventually plummet?
England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has been excellent of late, producing highlight reel saves in back-to-back epic knockout fixtures against Colombia and Sweden. His distribution has been equally impressive under the weight of immense expectations. But Pickford’s rags-to-riches story almost seems too good to be true at this point. As coach Gareth Southgate stated before this tournament, England fans always seem to find a scapegoat. Can England’s 24-year-old netminder hold his nerve?
2.
Can England create more chances?
The Three Lions have found it difficult to create — or finish off — chances against bunkering and disruptive sides like Tunisia, Colombia and Sweden. That doesn’t necessarily matter in tournament football. “Survive and advance” is the mantra squads live by. But you have to think England will eventually need to contend with a side that’s not going to concede from set pieces. Dele Alli and Raheem Sterling will need to be more decisive in and around the penalty area if England is to create more scoring opportunities against better opposition.
3.
Will Croatia look to play on the counter?
England would prefer an open game to provide more space for its many attacking players. You have to wonder if Croatian coach Zlatko Dalic will consider the fact England hasn’t produced many clear-cut scoring opportunities from the run of play. Croatia has a trio of attacking players who are good enough to get at Kyle Walker, John Stones and Harry Maguire on the counter. Croatia shouldn’t come out of a defensive shell until it has to. An open game favours the side with better attacking players.
4.
Is match fitness an issue for Croatia?
The Croatians just battled Russia for 120 minutes in an exhausting affair in Sochi. Croatia’s Round of 16 tie also went to penalties. They have played almost an extra game at this point, while England more or less strolled through Saturday’s match with Sweden after resting most of its starters during its group stage meeting with Belgium. The Croatians have injury concerns while The Three Lions look fully fit. Fitness could play a part in determining which side will play a second consecutive game at Luzhniki Stadium.
5.
Can Croatia contend with England in the air?
Swedish coach Janne Andersson conceded England might be the only team at this tournament whose aerial prowess is on par with his own team. Maguire looks capable of winning every ball floated into the box right now and England’s set pieces have confused multiple teams at this tournament. The way England bunch up at the top of the penalty area makes it extremely difficult for defenders to mark their man. If the Scandinavians had a hard time winning aerial duels against England, can Croatia fair that much better?
6.
How good is the French defence?
France’s defence wasn’t really tested against Australia, Peru or Denmark. Uruguay without An Edinson Cavani offered almost nothing going forward in a quarter-final meeting. The French defence has only looked flimsy against Lionel Messi and Argentina, who potted three goals against Les Bleus in a match that really shouldn’t have been so close. France has big players across its back line, but evidence suggests decent attacking sides can make them look average. Paul Pogba’s play has been far too casual at this tournament, which leads me to believe Belgium’s talented attacking group will have its moments in this game.
7.
Can Giroud do more?
French target man Olivier Giroud has played big at this tournament, knocking down balls and holding off defenders, while allowing the players around him to shine. He’s doing plenty of the stuff strikers rarely get credit for. But there will come a time in Tuesday night’s match when Giroud will be relied upon to score against a Belgian defence that’s going to be far more resolute than anything France has faced at this tournament. Les Bleus can’t get through this tournament without No. 9 producing more in front of the goal.
8.
Is Kylian Mbappe a World Cup fad or trend?
The best young player in the world followed up a brilliant performance against Argentina with a so-so showing in the quarter-final. And, while France didn’t need Mbappe to be at his best in a one-sided win over Uruguay, the 19-year-old will want to resume his role as this World Cup’s most exciting player. Mbappe’s just a teen, but this tournament very well could be career-defining for him.
9.
Will Belgium go away from what has worked?
Coach Roberto Martinez set Belgium up to defend deep against a Brazilian side that’s capable of outpacing the Red Devils in an open match. Having watched his side — and his defensive tactics — defeat the five-time champs, Martinez could be tempted to go back to a more offensive-minded posture that saw Belgium cruise through the group stage. If I’m Martinez, I play the exact same game against France, only opening up if Belgium should fall behind.
10.
Can Kante cancel Du Bruyne?
French midfielder N’Golo Kante has quietly been one of the most tidy players at this tournament. With Pogba providing more going forward, it will be up to Kante to keep a watchful eye on Belgian playmaker Kevin Du Bruyne. Kante’s role could prove crucial, if he can cut off the pipeline to Eden Hazard and Dries Mertens.