Liberals will say Scheer is not ready
Plan to sell Trudeau as the experienced one
Picture the scene: four people are gathered in Job Interview Room 115. “Some interesting resumés,” says one grey-haired gentleman. “Let’s talk about Andrew.”
“Let’s look at the ‘experience’ section — there’s nothing about balancing a budget or making a payroll,” says a lady in her 30s.
“So what are his policies?” says the older man.
“He has some growing up to do,” says a slightly older lady. “People, being prime minister is not an entry level job.”
“I’m not saying ‘no’ forever but not now,” says the younger lady.
“Nice dimples though,” says an Asian gentleman.
As we move into the sprint toward the 2019 general election, Liberal attacks on Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer won’t be a carbon copy of the “He’s Just Not Ready” ad the Conservatives used to attack Trudeau in 2015. But it is likely the Liberals will play up the need for continuity and experience in the Age of Trump. The result may be shades of the campaigns run against Trudeau and his predecessor, Stéphane Dion, whom the Conservatives deemed “not worth the risk” in 2008.
We are set to witness a race to the centre between the Liberals and Conservatives. A mix of conviction and a desire to galvanize the political base — that is, to raise money — has seen the parties operating at opposite ends of the political spectrum. That is likely to end.
In a speech to his party’s convention in Halifax next month, Scheer is expected to portray his party as one of the “centre-right.”
Meanwhile, Trudeau is going to have to turn down the volume on his beloved identity politics, in part because the allegations levelled against him of unwanted touching spoil the wedge the Liberals had been planning on gender, which would have portrayed the prime minister as a proto-feminist in contrast to Scheer, whom they would cast as a farright social-conservative extremist. The facts of the matter are still murky but there is enough ambiguity to make it risky for Trudeau to talk too much about gender equality and a zero-tolerance approach for sexual misbehaviour.
The smarter course will be to return focus to the aspirational middle class who elected him in the first place, and to talk about the issues that matter to them. Apologies to marginalized groups, compensation payments to terrorists and, unfortunately, reconciliation with Indigenous Canadians do not rank high among them.
It seems likely we could see a cabinet shuffle this summer, and perhaps a new throne speech in the fall to reset the government’s priorities. There is a sense that there are smart, capable, serious MPs, particularly in the ranks of parliamentary secretaries, who would benefit the government if they were moved into the frontlines. Names like Marco Mendicino, Jonathan Wilkinson and Marc Miller have been bandied around by some seasoned observers.
The key event on which the Liberals are likely to focus is the election of Donald Trump and how it has changed everything. The threat of a 25-per-cent tariff on automotive exports is existential — autos account for fully one quarter of the economic activity in Ontario, and the tariffs threaten one in five manufacturing jobs in the country’s largest province.
It may be just a negotiating tactic. It may be that, after the congressional midterm elections in November, Trump will be ready to strike a renewed deal on NAFTA, after which it will be business as usual.
But maybe not.
Steel tariffs were imposed using a national security provision, widely viewed as a pretext for the White House to bypass Congress. But maybe the president is deadly serious about building Fortress America and bringing entire supply chains behind tariff walls in preparation for what his top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, sees as the coming confrontation with China (he is the author a book called Death by China).
The Liberals think Trudeau will be seen as a safer bet in an era of permanent disruption than the callow Scheer — ironic, given what happened in 2015. But then the desire for change was off the charts. Now there is disbelief, anger and fear that our closest ally is pursuing a course of action that threat- ens the nation’s lifeblood. Voters may be in a more timid mood in 2019.
Trudeau retains strong support for his handling of the CanadaU.S. file and could use Trump’s actions as the catalyst for a campaign focused on transitioning to new markets and new products.
The Liberals are essentially selling “continuity with change,” which was a spoof campaign slogan for Selena Meyer in the TV show Veep. “Hollow and oxymoronic, it said absolutely nothing but seemed to have depth and meaning.”
In this case though, the pitch is that there is unfinished business for the party that helps with the strain of everyday life — the party that provided a guaranteed minimum income for lower income families (through the Canada Child Benefit), seniors (boosts to Old Age Security, the Guaranteed Income Supplement and the Canada Pension Plan) and the working poor (the Working Income Tax Benefit).
Trudeau will have to make clear to middle-class voters that the benefits of a Liberal government are not all in the rear-view mirror by pitching creative (if stolen) ideas like national pharmacare. He may also have to jettison ideas to which he has been committed. The Liberals blew their reputation as tax-cutters with the small business tax reform package that enraged the nation’s doctors and small-business owners. They are no longer trusted on taxes, which means the carbon tax is viewed as a cash grab rather than a revenueneutral measure. To impose the tax on provinces that are fighting in court against it may be legally sound but politically disastrous. It would be no surprise if it were punted down the road and the procrastination blamed on Trump.
But the economic issues will be fundamental, and they will be contrasted clearly against the choices the Conservatives make.
It might seem outlandish to sell Trudeau as the experienced alternative to a Conservative leader who is just not ready. But these are strange days. The most likely upshot is that those in the political centre who have felt themselves forsaken in recent months and years could be about to find themselves squeezed from both sides.