Where does Stone fit between the extremes?
Performance is benchmark that will determine what forward’s salary will be
When the figures first came out for Friday’s salary arbitration hearing between Mark Stone and the Ottawa Senators, there was a fair amount of shock and awe involved.
Both with the US$9-million ask from Stone and the $5-million counter offer from the Senators.
(Keep in mind, of course, that most pending arbitration hearings are resolved beforehand, with the sides settling on a deal before going through the oftentimes nasty business of weighing a player’s relative strengths and weaknesses against those of his NHL peers.)
Considering that an arbitrator bases his findings primarily on statistics, we’re also taking a closer look at the numbers involved.
A salary-cap hit of $9 million would make Stone the NHL’s eighth-highest-paid forward, tied with Nashville defenceman P.K. Subban for the 11th-highest salary-cap hit overall.
Stone’s solid two-way game always put him in consideration for the Frank J. Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward, but he has yet to score more than 26 goals or 64 points in a single season.
While he averaged 1.07 points per game last season, he can’t equal Chicago’s Patrick Kane, Tampa Bay ’s Nikita Kucherov or Vladimir Tarasenko of St. Louis at the very top of the offensive game-breaker category among right-wingers.
As such, $9 million would appear to be a reach that’s as long as Stone’s stick. Yet for those arguing that the figure is ridiculous, an arbitrator will also likely scoff at the $5-million number when taking a statistical look at where Stone stands among his peers.
Stone, 26, has scored 95 goals and 154 assists in 307 games, and has evolved into a portrait of consistency. Pencil him in for at least 20 to 25 goals and 60 to 70 points per season.
Whether the Senators are winning or losing, he generally finishes games because of his talents at both ends of the ice.
He averaged 20 minutes, 40 seconds of ice time per game last season — 11th among forwards in the league — and somehow finished as a plus player on a team that was outscored 291-221 overall.
At this point in the NHL’s evolution and with salary caps continuing to rise, $5 million is the going rate for forwards owning a unique niche (Tom Wilson) or carrying a one-dimensional scoring touch (James Neal).
Stone is so much more than that. So, where does he stand, salarywise?
First off, it’s not fair to compare Stone to Tarasenko (eight years, $60 million) or Boston’s David Pastrnak (six years, $40 million), who signed lucrative extensions in their early 20s after their original entry-level contracts expired.
Yet considering the recent history of contracts for right-wingers who were headed toward free agency (a group that includes Kucherov, Philadelphia’s Jakub Voracek, Buffalo’s Kyle Okposo and Cam Atkinson of Columbus), it says here that Stone should secure a salary somewhere in the vicinity of $7.5 million.
In 2011, incidentally, an arbitrator ruled that then-Nashville defenceman Shea Weber was worth $7.5 million, the highest award ever issued in arbitration.
Whatever an arbitrator might rule in Stone’s case, however, it’s hardly ideal for the Senators to be in the position where he could test the unrestricted free agent market next summer.
The best route for the Senators to re-establish some trust with their fans would be to sign Stone to a long-term extension before an arbitrator gets involved Friday.
It might mean forking over as much as $60 million over eight years — Stone has plenty of leverage because of the pending unrestricted free agency — but it would also send a loud message to all the fans waiting and wondering before buying season tickets.