Justin Trudeau’s political base still loves him

In a trend reminiscent of Sally Field’s famously misquoted Oscar speech, “You like me … you really like me!” let there be little doubt that members of the Liberal Party base still like Justin Trudeau. They really do.

Probably to the chagrin of his critics, they still like him for being the leader the Conservative Party worked so hard to mock. They embrace that “nice hair,” that exuberance, those sunny ways.

Three years after the Liberals roared back to majority government, the unofficial countdown to the next election — currently scheduled for one year from now — is underway. And while the Trudeau government’s vulnerability on files such as border security and the TransMountain pipeline means nothing can ever be taken for granted, the prime minister may be better positioned with his own base today than his opponents are with theirs.

It’s too early to take any meaning from “horserace” polling numbers. Instead, the Angus Reid Institute canvassed three distinct segments of the Canadian population: those who say they would definitely, likely, or maybe vote for each of the three main parties represented in the House of Commons. Think of each group as representing the Liberal, Conservative or NDP vote universe.

Inside the Liberal tent, it’s a veritable love-in. Four-infive say Trudeau is either a good or very good leader. The majority (61 per cent) say he’s positioned the party for electoral success in 2019. Asked to describe their leader, most (62 per cent) say he’s “charismatic"; half call him “compassionate.”

By contrast, the Conservative universe is more equivocal about Andrew Scheer. To be sure, most think he’s a good or very good leader (two-thirds), and say he’s poised to help the party pick up seats in the next election, but three in 10 shrug their shoulders when asked to describe the man the Liberals have tried to brand “Harper lite.” Those committed to or leaning CPC who have an opinion about their leader are most inclined to say he’s “down to earth” and “honest” (37 and 35 per cent respectively).

Beyond marks for general competence though, Scheer has something neither Trudeau nor Singh do: the biggest tent. While the membership of all these tents will overlap — particularly among “maybe” voters — fewer say they could “never” vote for the Conservatives than say the same of the Liberals or NDP (37 per cent versus 50 per cent).

Speaking of the New Democrats, their tent contains about the same number of possible voters as the Liberals, although fewer are locked in and more are merely flirting with the party. Unfortunately, were the NDP leader profiled on some weird, yet-to-be-invented version of political Tinder, more voters on the left would also be swiping left on Jagmeet Singh (in case you’re not familiar with regular Tinder, swiping left isn’t a good sign).

Fewer than half of the NDP universe (47 per cent) thinks Singh is good or very good at his job. Also troubling for the leader and his strategists, just one-in-three (34 per cent) members of his own base think he is positioned to increase the party’s seat count next fall. Nearly half (46) can’t find the words to describe him.

Why is this important? Because if you can’t convince the people already predisposed to drinking your KoolAid that it tastes really good, how will you get everyone else, i.e. the general electorate, to imbibe? In an age when everything — including politics — is marketing, your base should be comprised of your most enthusiastic brand ambassadors.

Of course, where personal appeal may be lacking, there are policy strengths on which Scheer and Singh may lean. For the Conservative leader, it will be hammering Trudeau’s not-so-glowing record on deficit management. For Singh, it will be making the case that he is the one to deliver the best universal Pharmacare plan to Canadians. Where passions fail to ignite, cold arguments may yet prevail.

Shachi Kurl is Executive Director of the Angus Reid Institute, a national, not-for-profit, nonpartisan public opinion research foundation.