Lame-duck council, contested wards among key issues to watch
A municipal election campaign is a slog.
Candidates could file their nomination papers as early as May, giving them six months to wear out sneakers while knocking on doors and attending community events.
Finally, Ottawa voters head to the polls Monday to elect the 201822 city council and school board trustees.
With polls set to close at 8 p.m., the battle for city hall has five storylines to follow.
TURNOUT
Advance votes brought out 56,861 people, which is a good sign that residents will be interested in casting ballots.
Turnout in 2014 was a dismal 39.92 per cent. In 2010, when there was a more interesting field of mayoral candidates, the turnout was 44 per cent.
The mayoral race in 2018 could be considered on par with 2014, but challenger Clive Doucet might bring more people to the polls if they’re interested in a competing vision to incumbent Jim Watson.
Some of the ward races should be too compelling for voters to ignore.
Foul weather shouldn’t be a factor: a crisp, sunny day is forecast.
NO-INCUMBENT WARDS
Four ward races are wide open with incumbents leaving municipal political life. Orléans, Innes, Kanata North and Bay wards will have new representatives when the next council is sworn in and the races could be close.
Incumbents in those wards have mostly stayed quiet about their preferred successors, although outgoing Kanata North councillor Marianne Wilkinson is pulling for one candidate in a heated race.
The outgoing councillors were generally supporters of Watson, so a reset in each ward could change council’s internal relationship.
INCUMBENTS FIGHTING TO RETAIN THEIR SEATS
The election might not be a cakewalk for incumbent councillors in a half-dozen wards.
Shad Qadri has a head-to-head fight against well-known community volunteer Glen Gower in Stittsville.
In Rideau-Vanier, emotions are still raw over the Salvation Army shelter relocation to Vanier, potentially risking Mathieu Fleury’s re-election bid. Thierry Harris has been Fleury’s strongest challenger.
Riley Brockington in River ward is exposed after receiving backlash from some community association members and former ward councillor Maria McRae. Fabien Kalala Cimankinda has emerged as the top challenger.
David Chernushenko is feeling the heat from all four challengers in Capital ward.
Three strong challengers could also pull votes away from Alta Vista incumbent Jean Cloutier.
And in Gloucester-South Nepean, incumbent Michael Qaqish could fall victim to vote splitting on a five-candidate ballot, giving former broadcaster Carole Anne Meehan a shot at the seat.
THE MAYORAL RACE
Watson shouldn’t have a problem keeping his corner office at city hall. However, while it wouldn’t be surprising to see Watson get a strong mandate, it will be interesting to see how much of a dent Clive Doucet puts in the incumbent’s support.
Watson won re-election in 2014 with a 76 per cent share of the total vote. In 2018, Doucet will be another recognizable name on a 12-candidate mayoral ballot.
While there have been proposals during the campaign on transit, affordable housing and taxes, the mayoral election is largely about voters’ satisfaction or displeasure with the current management of city hall.
What message will they send Watson?
THE THREAT OF
A ‘LAME DUCK’ COUNCIL
If residents don’t return a minimum number of council members, the current council will be a “lame duck” until the start of the next term.
The Ontario Municipal Act says if fewer than three-quarters of the current council return in the next term of office, the current council can’t make certain decisions for the municipality.
Those decisions include appointing or removing an officer of the municipality, hiring or firing employees, selling any property worth more than $50,000 or racking up any expenses worth more than $50,000.
The bans don’t apply to money already budgeted to be spent or money needed for emergencies.
If fewer than 18 of 24 council members are returning next term, the current council will be a lame duck until Dec. 1. Taking into account the four wards without incumbents and the number of potential upsets, it’s a serious possibility.