‘It is an uphill battle’ to pass USMCA deal, analyst says

At least one law firm has a “war room” dedicated to the task, the Canadian embassy in Washington has a nine-person team on the job. Crucial U.S. Congress votes on the new North American trade deal may be six months or more away, but the vote counting has already begun. In Trump administration offices, embassies and lobbyist offices, staff are reading the tea leaves of public comments, letters signed and past votes to track support for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Some see a bumpy road ahead. Lawyers at Dickinson Wright have estimated the Senate and House of Representatives are a combined 85 votes short of what’s needed to pass the deal. “It is an uphill battle to get a trade deal through Congress in an ideal political environment,” said the firm’s Dan Ujczo. “If we have a divided government (after the mid-terms) … that hill becomes a mountain.” Canadian officials say they sense a generally positive response to the accord on Capitol Hill, but anticipate drama. “It’s a difficult issue for Congress to deal with,” said one official, not authorized to speak on the record. The office of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also appears to be keeping close tabs on congressional support. There have been positive comments about the accord from 84 members, including 30 senators, Lighthizer detailed to Trump’s cabinet last week. He didn’t offer a tally of negative reviews. But some groups with a stake in seeing the deal passed say it’s too early to count votes. “So much is unknown,” said Brian Kuehl of the group Farmers for Free Trade. The USMCA still has to be signed by the three countries’ leaders, but that is likely to happen Nov. 30. It’s then expected to be ratified with little difficulty by Canada — where the Liberals hold a majority — and Mexico, although its deputy commerce minister warned Friday that Mexico won’t ratify the deal as long as it faces U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs. The biggest question mark hovering over the deal is its fate in the two houses of Congress, whose members don’t exactly have a history of embracing free trade. The vote is expected to occur next year, after midterm elections on Nov. 6. Polls suggest the Democrats could gain a majority in the House.