Digging into the great condo debate

LeBreton studies reveal arguments at heart of lawsuit

It’s the big question at the heart of the $700-million lawsuit launched Nov. 23 by Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk.

Why would Trinity Development founder John Ruddy — the target of that suit and one of the city’s most experienced real-estate entrepreneurs — deliberately undercut his part of the massive project to remake LeBreton Flats as alleged by Melnyk?

Ruddy and his team say there is enough housing demand in downtown Ottawa to support his two largest projects — a 1,300-unit apartment-and-retail complex at 900 Albert St. and the 4,400-unit development that is meant to populate LeBreton Flats.

AUTHOR: URBANATION – commissioned by RendezVous LeBreton partnership Date: Nov. 12, 2015 Conclusion: The 10,000 apartment/condo units proposed for downtown Ottawa represent a 15-year supply, or 650 units per year. With Ottawa’s improving economy and employment growth, Urbanation predicts there will be sufficient demand to accommodate the additional 200 residential units proposed by LeBreton RendezVous by 2027 and another 150 starts annually by 2033. Trinity Development’s 900 Albert St. project was not included in this analysis, as Trinity had not yet applied for zoning changes on the property.

AUTHOR: URBANATION — commissioned by Trinity Development Date: Aug. 17, 2018 Conclusion: Although the supply of apartment/condo units proposed for downtown Ottawa has jumped to 11,650 (including 1,300 units at 900 Albert St.), Urbanation maintains there is still enough room in the market to add another 200 units each year at LeBreton. The reason: Ottawa’s population is growing faster than expected, creating demand for housing that will outstrip supply.

AUTHOR: PWC — commissioned by Ottawa Senators Date: April 2018 Conclusion: About 10,000 apartment/condo units are expected to be built in downtown Ottawa by 2028, not including LeBreton or 900 Albert St. PwC estimates downtown units will be built at the rate of 800 per year this year and next, rising to 1,200 per year between 2020 and 2024. Under PwC’s optimistic scenario, there’s enough room in the market outside the 10,000 units already proposed to support the construction of another 170 units per year. But RendezVous and 900 Albert are planning to build 200 units each from 2020 to 2024, leaving room for just one of these projects.