The pre-election script PM could be reading, but isn’t
Here’s how this fall’s campaign would look if Trudeau had kept his 2015 promises
Rejoice, Canada!
Say so long, first-past-the-post, and hello to the brave new world of proportional representation.
Final campaign preparations under the new voting regime are now being made by all parties. Entire armies of political strategists weaned on the vicious norms of two-party battles are taking one final look at their draft battle plans under the new rules. Nothing is being left to chance; expertise is being drafted in from PR countries such as Israel, Sweden and Norway to ensure issue sets and voter turnout strategies are geared toward the highest return in the new system.
The Trudeau government is certainly hoping its brave move to shake up Canada’s election system pays off. A pre-writ poll done on behalf of Karina Gould, Trudeau’s minister of Democratic Institutions, shows that fully 92 per cent of Canadians are pleased their vote will count no matter where they reside. Green leader Elizabeth May and Maxime Bernier, of the People’s Party of Canada, are exultant, knowing their parties are now in with a legitimate shot at becoming long-term players. At long last, there will be no more all-powerful majority governments resting on the thin and undemocratic ledge of 39 per cent of votes and 65-per-cent turnout. No more lonely federalists wasting their votes in rural Quebec, and no more socialists doing the same in cities such as Lethbridge and Fort McMurray.
It was a moment the skeptics said would never come.
When Justin Trudeau stood up on June 16, 2015 in the soonto-be-defaced Château Laurier and promised to bin the country’s outdated election system, nobody rated his chances. The critics said the governing party would eventually bend to self-interest and keep things the way they are. But Trudeau held his nerve and now it’s happening.
Nor is it the only thing happening.
The latest figures from the Parliamentary Budget Officer confirm the federal budget will be back in balance by September, fulfilling another key Trudeau pledge from 2015. Delivery of this “very” cast-in-stone promise will undoubtedly go a long way to reassuring red Tories unsure of Andrew Scheer’s bona fides that another vote for Trudeau isn’t a vote for fiscal profligacy.
More significantly, Canada’s long-term finances also seem assured following the Trudeau government’s unexpected success in threading the environment/resource needle to get more of Canada’s oil to market. Construction of the TMX pipeline by Trans Mountain continues apace and the late approval of the Northern Gateway project will mean billions more to Canada’s bottom line. And then there’s the expected revenue from the country’s soon-to-be $102/tonne carbon tax, i.e. the social licence needed to get the controversial oilsands projects over the line with environmentalists and the Paris Climate Accord.
The pipeline deals provide the clearest signal yet of the complete transformation of the Crown-Indigenous relationship promised by Trudeau. The full buy-in of band councils along the routes should improve conditions on-reserve markedly, adding to the balm already provided by the smooth and thorough inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women. And while an Indigenous Governor General didn’t come to pass — the ever-warm and ever-engaged Julie Payette was selected instead — Liberal loyalists are convinced an Indigenous Supreme Court Justice will come in the second Trudeau term.
But the greatest success of the first Trudeau term is undoubtedly the complete transformation of Parliament.
Government by cabinet is, as Trudeau promised, back, with strong Cabinet ministers such as Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott firmly ensconced in key posts, and up-and-coming women such as Mélanie Joly ready to take on more senior positions in a second Trudeau term. Shorn of omnibus bills, parliamentary committees have been able to fully study each piece of legislative text proposed by the government — including the creation of a deferred prosecution regime — and opposition requests for accountability have been heeded at most every turn, no matter how embarrassing for Trudeau and his government.
The new-found civility in Parliament has been matched outside of it, too, with Trudeau holding fast to his promise of “sunny ways.” Even the appointment of a pro-life female MP to head the Status of Women committee wasn’t enough to unleash Trudeau’s historically rash tongue in front of crowds of Liberal donors. “Conservatives aren’t our enemies,” Trudeau reminded them, “they’re our neighbours.”
Even the prospect of electoral battle under a system where Trudeau can expect to bleed support to other progressive choices hasn’t whipped up the kind of bog-standard Liberal attacks on abortion or gay marriage. Nor has Trudeau played identity politics with other minority groups, whether gay, transgender or ethnic minorities.
The Trudeau record is evidence of an assured performance from a rookie prime minister.
All the 2015 Conservative claims of vanity and unseriousness have simply not come to pass. Trudeau has at all times held himself to the same high standards he expects of others, and deserves re-election.
Andrew MacDougall is a London-based communications consultant and ex-director of communications to former prime minister Stephen Harper.