STARTING STRONG

NDP not dead yet: Ivison

Jagmeet Singh needed his election campaign to get off to a good start and, compared to his rivals, he has come out of the blocks strongly.

Justin Trudeau has had to endure tortured metaphors about his disabled campaign plane and awkward questions about his role in the SNC affair. Andrew Scheer stood glowering while his candidate for York Centre, Rachel Willson, shared her thoughts on abortion with the media. But Singh has radiated the serenity of those blessed with low expectations. He has faced some tough questioning over a shortfall

of candidates — the party still had to nominate sacrificial lambs in 93, mostly unwinnable, ridings.

But the NDP has made a good fist of his launch — slick visuals of the leader and his new bride, clothing designer Gurkiran Kaur; sharp opposition research linking Liberals to their “wealthy friends”; and a people-focused launch speech that talked of Trudeau’s “pretty words and empty promises”.

On launch day, Trudeau lined up an array of “average Canadians” behind him like potted plants — they had the look of people who had agreed to sit through a time share presentation in order to claim a vacation deal.

By contrast, Singh used his human backdrop to good effect, lining them up to make a point about waiting for health care, as he pledged the NDP would cut wait-times and help build a new hospital in Brampton, Ont. (Let’s leave aside the fact that provinces build hospitals and that all governments have pledged to reduce wait times for medically necessary treatment, even as the wait has grown from nine weeks to 20 weeks over the past 25 years).

The relative turnaround in NDP fortunes couldn’t have come at better time. Singh arrived on the federal scene like a comet. A viral video that received 35 million views saw him face down a heckler who accused him of being “in bed with the Muslim brotherhood”. Singh resisted the temptation to point out he is Sikh, not Muslim, because it would have suggested that the ad hominem attack was justified. “Once allowed to grow, hate doesn’t pick and choose,” he said, just days before the NDP elected him their new leader.

The incident suggested that Singh was a charismatic leader who could rival Trudeau when it came to grabbing headlines. But those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first call promising. Since winning the leadership in fall 2017, just about everything that could go wrong for Singh has done so.

The new leader made much of his own bad luck — bringing in a cadre of advisers who had no experience of federal politics and shallow roots in the party.

As a result, Singh was found wanting when it came to caucus management — former MP Erin Weir was ejected over harassment allegations and veteran David Christopherson was punished for voting with the Conservatives on an issue of conscience. The party suffered a series of abject byelection results, not only in Quebec but also in the suburbs of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, where it was hoped Singh might resonate with large South Asian populations.

The new leader tried to straddle a dispute between NDP provincial governments in British Columbia and Alberta over the Trans Mountain pipeline, before being forced to side with the environmentalists in B.C. and cut loose Rachel Notley’s Prairie populists, which earned him her undying enmity.

These reversals were compounded by more organizational setbacks. The party’ s financial situation became dire as donations dried up—the NDP was out-fundraised by the Greens in the second quarter of this year — with implications for its ability to run a national campaign.

Many party stalwarts decided discretion was the better part of valour and said they would not re-offer for re-election, including the best leader the party never had, Nathan Cullen.

Singh was forced to admit his party was not connecting with people. As each unforced error and misfortune was magnified, so popular support dwindled — the party had secured 20 per cent of the vote in 2015, electing 41 MPs, but on the eve of the election the average level of support in a number of polls was 13.5 per cent support.

Still, predictions that the NDP could meltdown and lose official party status seem overblown.

The Trudeau running for re-election is not the unimpeachable figure who wooed left-leaning voters four years ago.

Singh may have his shortcomings as a leader but he is a natural campaigner and he has been quick to speak about the issues that top the list of concerns for the 52 per cent of voters who remain uncommitted — improving health care, affordable housing and climate change. The party’s New Deal for People platform, with its “head to toe” health care proposal, including mental health, dental and eye care may appeal to voters who are not overly concerned about balancing the country’s books.

Many NDP ideas have already been filched by the Liberals but others are too rich for a party that claims adherence to the fiscal anchor of a declining debt to GDP ratio.

Sing h’ s cavalier at titude to public debt makes Trudeau look like a deficit hawk. The NDP platform proposes a wealth tax of one per cent on those worth more than $20 million, which the party believes would raise billions. More likely, it would spark capital flight and increase Porsche sales among tax accountants.

It is late in the day for are boot but the New Democrats are not dead yet.

The party transformed itself by employing political professionals under Jack Layton and Tom Mulcair. Much of that institutional knowledge was lost with Singh’s arrival but he has belatedly brought in some experience in the form of former Manitoba cabinet minister, Jennifer Howard, as campaign chair, veteran party strategist Michael Balagus as special adviser and Hill veteran, George Soule, to help with communications. The party has also convinced former MPs Jack Harris, Malcolm Allan and Andrew Cash to run again, which suggests not all insiders have lost faith in Singh.

For much of his leadership, the NDP has been incidental to the national narrative but any signs of revival should be watched closely.

For one thing, the Conservatives only win elections when the New Democrats are polling in the high teens.

For another, a strong NDP performance increases the likelihood of a minority government upon which Singh would have considerable influence.

As one senior New Democrat recalls fondly, the party had more clout with Stephen Harper’s minority Conservative government, after winning 37 MPs in 2008, than it did after he won his majority in 2011, and the NDP held 103 seats.

The relatively strong start to the election suggests Singh has the potential to exceed expectations — even if they are all but prostrate at this point in time.