If Ottawa had cut back emissions in the ’90s ...

Ottawa promised in 1990 and 1992 to cut carbon dioxide emissions by half. We asked Tom Adams, an independent energy policy analyst in Toronto, what the city would look like if this had actually happened. We also asked him to base his ideas on real-world technology, not on the hope of technology breakthroughs.

ADAMS

“Phasing out ground-level dwellings, shifting to MURBs,” or multi-unit residential buildings — apartments and condos.

REALITY

Steady growth of single-family homes, and the spread of Orléans, Barrhaven, Longfields and Kanata, and also towns farther out such as North Gower and Carleton Place.

ADAMS

“Shifting food consumption to vegetarianism without fresh fruits and perishable veggies out of season.”

REALITY

Meat still sells, and we can still eat blueberries from Chile and oranges from California in winter.

ADAMS

“Population and prosperity reduction.”

REALITY

The Census Metropolitan Area of Ottawa had 941,814 people in 1991. In the latest census (2016) the population was 1,323,783. Growth is significant because if emissions cuts are to last, each new resident must get energy by making existing residents give up some of theirs. Individually, many households and businesses are more energy-efficient than a few years ago. But population growth is a killer.

ADAMS

“Nuclear power and electrification of heating, road and rail transportation.”

REALITY

We have had no new nuclear plants since Darlington was completed in 1993, and limited growth in supply from wind farms. Electric heat is relatively rare. On the road, we still love heavy gasoline-powered machines. The top-selling vehicle in Canada year after year is Ford’s F-Series pickup, and there are three other trucks in the top five from 2018: Dodge Ram and GM’s Sierra and Silverado.

ADAMS

“Reduced air travel.”

REALITY

No.