Voters likely to paint city Liberal red in election

The federal election is just 10 days away, and with all eyes on the Toronto 905 region, where the race will likely be won or lost, Ottawa has become a bystander to the excitement. And for good reason.

Across the eight ridings in Ottawa and four in the Gatineau area, established voting patterns leave little room for competitive races and potential flips. No surprise party leaders have for the most part given our region a wide berth.

In 2015, Liberals took seven of the eight seats in Ottawa. They also swept West Quebec. And despite the beating the party has taken in the wake of two major scandals and the ensuing damage to Justin Trudeau’s personal standing, the national capital region looks set to continue its Liberal love affair.

Of the eight Ottawa seats, two (Ottawa—Vanier and Ottawa South) are good bets to remain Liberal. Pierre Poilievre is more than likely to retain Carleton for the Conservatives. That leaves five seats with some degree of competitiveness, and the one that might be in play is Kanata—Carleton, where Karen McCrimmon is seeking re-election against Conservative Justina McCaffrey.

Kanata—Carleton is a new riding, first contested in 2015, but in its previous incarnations it was a Conservative stronghold. Provincially, it is held by the Progressive Conservatives.

The riding lost much of its rural character and became more urban in redistribution. McCrimmon won it with 51 per cent of the vote, so the main reason it might be in play is its history.

Ottawa Centre is another intriguing riding. Catherine McKenna was relatively unknown to the electorate when she took it from the late Paul Dewar, and went on to become a high-profile environment minister. McKenna faces a big challenge from NDP’s Emilie Taman, a former federal prosecutor. The NDP certainly has a record of defeating Liberals provincially and federally in Ottawa Centre.

In the 2018 provincial election, the NDP’s

Joel Harden pulled off a shock victory over Liberal attorney general Yasir Naqvi. Federally, former NDP leader Ed Broadbent won the riding, as did Dewar. McKenna, though, has kept local promises she made last time, such as funding for a new footbridge over the Rideau Canal and a new library. Taman is formidable, but McKenna’s profile and record give her the edge.

Ottawa West—Nepean is where victory in recent years has been so near yet so far for the Conservative party. John Baird held court here for a decade, and it is a riding in which Conservatives always believe they have a chance but never manage to seal the deal. They may have some hope with MPP Jeremy Roberts’ narrow provincial victory in 2018. Liberal Anita Vandenbeld won big federally in 2015 — 55.7 per cent against 29.9 per cent for Conservative Abdul Abdi, an Ottawa police officer. The pair will go at it again, with the Liberals more likely to prevail.

Orléans is also worth watching, largely because it is an open seat. Liberal-turned-Conservative David Bertschi is taking on Marie-France Lalonde, a former provincial cabinet minister who resigned as MPP to run federally. Bertschi had a public falling out with the Liberals over the 2015 nomination and would love to win here. But he faces an uphill battle.

Lalonde, who has served as Orléans MPP since 2014, is well known in the riding.

Besides, Orléans has a sizable francophone population and disaffection with Ontario Premier Doug Ford over cuts to French-language services could be a drag for Bertschi. If the Liberals can’t win in Orléans, it spells trouble around the country.

In Eastern Ontario, the race to whet the appetite is Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, where old combatants Liberal Francis Drouin, seeking re-election, and former Conservative MP Pierre Lemieux renew hostilities. This is where Progressive Conservative MPP Amanda Simard resigned over French-language service cuts, and the Ford factor could be big here.

Across the river, history is set to repeat itself in Gatineau, Hull—Aylmer, Pontiac and the new riding of Argenteuil—La Petite—Nation.

For better, for worse, Trudeau’s Liberals look set to continue their dominance in the nation’s capital.

Mohammed Adam is an Ottawa writer.