Ontario’s premier will be a challenge for the next prime minister
Both vilified and ignored, Doug Ford won’t be generous to either Trudeau or Scheer
In this election campaign, much has been made of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s unrelenting attacks on Doug Ford as he seeks to link the unpopular Ontario premier with federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.
Many have wondered how Trudeau, if he is prime minister after Monday, can work with a premier he has basically set up as a punching bag. Fair point. On everything from infrastructure to pharmacare and health care, the federal government will need the co-operation of the provinces to implement policies. But if you are Ford, what incentive do you have to co-operate with a prime minister who has turned you into something of a bogeyman? The interests of Ontarians may require it, but co-operation won’t come easy.
Overlooked but no less important going forward is the relationship between Ford and a potential Prime Minister Andrew Scheer. However you cut it, there is no denying that Scheer has treated Ford poorly. Ford has been turned into an outcast in his own province because Scheer fears the unpopular premier might drag him down in a must-win province. Scheer campaigned across the province, even in the premier’s Etobicoke backyard, with nary a nod to Ford. And worse, the federal Tories imported Premier Jason Kenney from Alberta to campaign for Scheer in Ontario. Despite what Ford’s allies say, he can’t be happy with Scheer turning him into persona non grata on his own turf. Will it have a lasting impact?
The thing about Ford’s fall from grace is how it came so quickly and dramatically. His transformation from a Conservative star into something of a pariah is remarkable. Ford was the toast of Conservatives everywhere when he defeated Kathleen Wynne last year, reducing the Liberals to third-party status after 15 years in government. He quickly became the face of Conservatives, the quintessential anti-Trudeau, embraced by Scheer. Ford was hailed as the irresistible force who would deliver Ontario and make Scheer prime minister. But just as quickly as Ford rose, the bottom fell out. Affection turned into disaffection and Ford’s popularity sank as Ontarians felt the impact of his austerity policies. Ford had suddenly become toxic and as the campaign took off, Scheer began to steer clear of him. The premier all but disappeared from the scene and it was left to Trudeau to constantly remind voters about him. That’s politics, which can be tough, even brutal.
But if you are Scheer, running in your first election against a sitting prime minister, what can you realistically do with someone like Ford? Winning is everything in an election and if what it takes is to step on toes, including those of your friends, so be it. You deal with the consequences later. It is understandable if Ford feels betrayed, but Scheer’s team may have had no choice other than to distance itself from him. The question then is: What happens if Scheer wins? Imagine how awkward it would be the first time Scheer and Ford appeared in public? Would it be all smiles? Would Ford hold a grudge or would all be forgiven and forgotten? Would the reality of a Conservative victory heal wounds? More than likely.
What will there be to fight over if there is a Conservative government in Ottawa and one in Toronto, both raring to dismantle, piece by piece, the house that Trudeau built? And even if Scheer doesn’t win and the party has to rebuild, will Ford be on his side? Whatever happens, Scheer has a job patching up his relationship with Ford.
The last six weeks have been a chastening experience for Ford, and Oct. 21 cannot come soon enough. He can’t wait for the election to be over so he can reclaim his territory and reset. Ford is relatively new to national politics and he will learn from this unhappy moment in his life. The reset begins with the Nov. 6 fiscal update, and as Ford enters his second year facing significant challenges, we may yet see a humbler, more nuanced premier.
Mohammed Adam is an Ottawa writer.