A hold-your-nose election finally comes to a close
We are truly unblessed with choices this time, but choose we still must
The romantic view of democracy says each vote is a chance to live our values, to embrace and enjoy the freedom of choosing who will govern us and keep the country safe. The more prosaic view is that voting is a chore; one we don’t particularly enjoy doing, especially when giants are nowhere to be found on the ballot. And so it is in this campaign.
In the red corner we have Justin Trudeau, he of the legitimate climate plan, considerable (and endless) deficits and significant legal and moral failings. And in the blue we have Andrew Scheer, the almost insurance broker and part-time American (but only if you ask him) who is betting that an appeal to your pocketbook is more effective than appeals on behalf of the planet. We are truly unblessed with choice.
Which isn’t to say there aren’t choices to be made.
If you’re worried by the prospect of climate change you’ve never had it so good. There are three parties on the ballot with ambitious plans on the environment. And if you’re worried that Trudeau has spent too much while the sun is shining, you have the umbrella of Scheer, who will keep spending rising but eventually close the deficit within five years. The problem is you can’t have both, at least not in this election.
Climate activists — including the ones in control of Trudeau’s office — argue that four more years of red ink is a small price to pay for real climate action. And in good times that might be true. But what if the world economy goes arse over teakettle in the interim? The new head of the International Monetary Fund estimates that 90 per cent of the world is headed for slower growth. Think funding climate action gets easier or harder as household budgets are stretched and countries head deeper into deficit?
Trudeau already has Canada staring at a $27.4-billion deficit when job growth is strong and economic growth is positive.
How deep is the hole going to get when Canada has to turn to fiscal policy to boost growth in the case of a recession?
All of a sudden, that debt-toGDP ratio the Liberals cling to as proof of their fiscal sanity gets stretched and the job of getting back to balance becomes (even more) politically painful.
Lest we forget, it was a Trudeau who lost the original bet that deficits and high spending didn’t matter and it took a combination of Brian Mulroney and Jean Chrétien/Paul Martin to make the hard choices necessary to put the country back on solid footing. And while interest rates are no longer the scourge of yesteryear, it is foolish to think they will forever be nailed to the floor. If you’re the kind of person screaming bloody murder at Doug Ford or Andrew Scheer’s “austerity” now, you don’t know what your vocal cords are in for should rates drift upwards.
It’s enough to make one pine for Stéphane Dion, an environmentalist whose “Green Shift” struck a balance that centrists like me would die for now: lower taxes on things we like ( job creation, income), and higher taxes on the pollution we don’t.
Come back from the diplomatic ice floe to which you were banished, professor; all is forgiven!
But with this election heading for a minority outcome, the chances of fiscal and climate sanity are nil.
If Trudeau wins a plurality of seats, or sticks close enough to Scheer to take his shot at continuing on in government with the support of the NDP and/ or Greens, the hit to Canadian pocketbooks is going to be deep and sustained.
If the NDP and Greens are to become kingmakers, they should at least extract a hefty price, and that’s not pharmacare. Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May ought to insist on Andrew Scheer’s idea of launching a judicial inquiry into the Trudeau government’s dealings with SNC-Lavalin.
The inquiry ought to be no problem for Trudeau; he’s maintained all along — despite gagging Jody Wilson-Raybould and others, and despite stonewalling the RCMP — that he’s done nothing wrong. And the upside to both Singh and May is obvious. While Trudeau offers little to the actual functioning of the Liberal government, he is totemic to its political success.
An inquiry that found malfeasance would sink the NDP and Greens’ biggest obstacle to government.
It would also remove the Conservatives biggest impediment: their fear of the centre ground. This election has been there for the taking. That Scheer appears not to have capitalized should prove once and for all that the base is not enough. That outcome alone would be worth the stink of this “hold your nose” election.
Happy voting.
Andrew MacDougall is a London-based communications consultant and ex-director of communications to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
Heading for a minority outcome, the chances of fiscal and climate sanity are nil.