Snowmageddon very much a slushocalyspe
Predicted storm mostly fizzles out as precipitation falls largely as rain
Wetter, warmer, west-er.
That’s the simple explanation for why the storm forecast to hammer Ottawa on Thursday proved to be more of a slushy mess than a city-paralyzing storm of storms.
“People were using words like ‘snowmageddon’ and ‘snowpocalypse’ and then it was, ‘What happened?’” said David Phillips, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist.
Seventeen centimetres of snow had fallen by mid-afternoon Thursday — definitely at the low end of the 20 to 40 cm forecasters had predicted, prompting school bus cancellations and city hall employees being told to stay home for the day. The storm that had been tracking straight into the Ottawa Valley veered further west than expected, dragging a slot of warm air to the east that meant much of our precipitation fell as rain overnight, Phillips said.
The storm “was slower than we thought and began later than we thought,” said Phillips, who tracked the system’s movements from his home near Barrie. “It was snowing in the entire province of Ontario — except for Ottawa.”
Had that rain — and the hourand-a-half of freezing rain that followed it — come down as snow, it would have added another 20 cm to Ottawa’s total, he said, bringing it in line with the forecast.
It was the warm moist air that created the toonie-sized flakes that gave the city its picturesque “snow globe” look in the morning. The ice crystals grow and clump together as they fall unless the wind picks up and breaks them apart.
Not that the city escaped unscathed. By 4 p.m. Ottawa police had already been called to more than 100 collisions, more than double a normal day’s work, though none of the crashes was serious. Ottawa paramedics had been called to 14 collisions with injuries, though again, none were serious said spokesperson Emily Fullarton.
And for commuters who left their cars at home and opted for public transit, it was another day of misery on the LRT, with just six of the normal complement of 13 trains running at one point. The conditions played havoc with buses, too, particularly OC Transpo’s fleet of articulated buses, which slipped, spun and even collided in the wet and slush.
Nevertheless, “It just wasn’t the scary storm that was expected,” Phillips said.
It’s been that sort of winter. December, January and February have all been warmer than normal, with January’s average a shocking 4 C above normal. We’ve had just seven days with the temperature below -20 C when normally we would have had 17 such days by this time, Phillips said.
Including Thursday’s fall, Ottawa has had 180 centimetres of snow this winter, slightly ahead of the 172 cm at this time of year in a normal winter, but a full metre less than what had fallen by this time last year. A year ago, there was 66 cm on the ground in Ottawa, compared with about 25 cm this year.
That’s good news when it comes to flood predictions. Last year’s deep snow combined with heavy spring rains and deeply frozen ground contributed to the catastrophic flooding of April and May. It’s not a guarantee that there won’t be floods this year, Phillips said, but so far, so good.
And while temperatures will dip this weekend, next week is looking to be balmy, with highs of 7 or more in the early part of the week.
But, as always with weather, there is a caveat.
“You can’t write the obituary for winter just yet. This is not winter’s last hurrah,” Phillips said.
“If this is an average winter unfolding, you’ve still get another 55 cm of snow to come. That’s a quarter of your annual total,” he said.
And of the last 75 Aprils, he noted, only three of them have been snow-free.