AUTOMOTIVE FUTURE REQUIRES ALL OF US TO DO MUCH BETTER
The automotive industry is changing. It needs to change. Electrification is the future.
The problem is the polemics impeding progress. For every new electric vehicle sold, 10 gas-guzzling pickups fly off dealer lots. Impassioned Greta Thunberg followers make headlines; the silent majority buys ever-larger SUVs. One government, Norway, goes all in on EVs; another, the largest economy in the world, is seemingly doing everything it can to hinder progress. The discussion of how to make automobiles greener has become laced with invective, prognostications of doom and the propagation of diametrically opposed extremes.
We need to do better.
We all need to do better. Climate change deniers need to get with the program: Anyone thinking the status quo — our almost complete reliance on fossil fuels for private transportation — will remain indefinitely is dreaming. Scientists appear to agree we’re emitting more carbon dioxide and that temperatures are rising. You might think those two are unrelated — that Earth’s warming is simply cyclical — but evidence suggests this current cycle is more dramatic than those past. So even if our current warming phase is partly periodic, denying that humans are contributing to the problems is a sticking-one’s-head-in-sand too far. Climate change extremists need to stop shouting: Every time you call the climate change problem a “crisis,” every time you say all gasoline cars need to be banned in the next 10 years, and every time you prognosticate that we’ll eventually have to give up all forms of personal transportation, it’s too much like Chicken Little screaming the sky is falling.
Traditional automakers need to up their game: First, you gave Tesla a head start. Then, after years of standing on the sidelines, you finally — as in, after a trillion useless board meetings and conferences — decided to get with the program and build competing EVs. You have years of engineering experience to call on, suppliers and consultants just champing at the bit to help you develop new, groundbreaking technologies. And what have you come up with? If these past few years represent your best efforts, then you’re in exactly the dire straits Tesla investors proclaim.
Tesla fanatics need to become at least familiar with reality: The world will not be a better place if all future cars are made by Tesla; you just have to look at the crap General Motors put out when it enjoyed half of North America’s market share to see the downside of hegemony. Most importantly, you need to stop this preoccupation with batteries. The trucking industry already suffers from low profit margins. Forcing them to dump half their loads and spend five times longer “refuelling” is to condemn them to insolvency or force huge inflationary pressures on consumer goods. Fuel cells are the only near-term solution for coast-to-coast haulage. Besides, do you really think that transport ships and jumbo jets are going to be battery powered? Toyota needs to up its ante: The most likely candidate to lead us into a (partially) hydrogen-fuelled future is Toyota, the world’s most successful automaker. It already has FCEVs for sale, its research is extensive, and the company is committed to building a hydrogen-powered “city” in Japan as proof of concept.
Still, it needs to do better. Tesla has proved that one of the most important criteria for early adoption is sufficient infrastructure. Credit where it’s due, Musk understood that if he built it, they would come. Toyota needs to do the same. It certainly has the money — reports late last year had the Japanese giant sitting on a horde of cash totalling almost US$40 billion. So, Toyota, if you really want the Mirai to challenge Tesla, you’re going to have to put your money where your fuel cell is.
Consumers need to start acting responsibly: Gas is cheap, interest rates are low, so it’s pretty much damn the environment, full speed ahead. Trucks and SUVs now make up 75 per cent of North American sales. The result is that, despite decades of the increased efficiency of the internal combustion engine, the fuel economy of the average car on the street has not improved in years.
Consumers love to blame car companies for their lack of action on the environment. I suggest they need to look in the mirror for the real culprit. As I said, we all need to do better.