INTO THE UNKNOWN

Politicians mum on virus models

Politicians warned Wednesday that Canadians can expect weeks or months of social distancing, but declined to reveal their own models or estimates of just how many people could become infected or die of COVID-19.

While federal and provincial leaders stressed the need for Canadians to maintain the fight against COVID-19, they refused to disclose models that project how the virus might play out.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said releasing projection models might prompt panic.

“There are a few different models and if we give one or the other it sends two different messages,” said Ford. “These models could drastically, drastically change. If we underestimate on one side and overestimate on the other (it could) create a panic if we overestimate.”

When asked about releasing information from such models, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, "There are a wide range of projections depending on how Canadians are behaving.”

Health Minister Patty Hajdu and Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, also declined to release the data.

Hajdu said there were a lot of variables in the models and how Canadians react to the crisis would bend the curve.

“It is not as easy of an answer as I think it would seem, in that different ranges can be anticipated in different ways depending on the measures that have been taken, the effectiveness of those measures, when they have been taken.”

Tam echoed that sentiment.

“Together with the other chief medical officers, we have been looking at planning different scenarios, but all of us recognize that right now how you influence the trajectory of this is dependent on what we are doing.”

Hajdu said it was important that every Canadian take the issue seriously.

“This is a sneaky virus. We may feel only mildly ill, some people don’t feel ill at all,” she said. “We have to act as though we are all carrying this virus.”

Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux, the party’s health critic, said Canadians should have all the information.

“You have enough buyin. Canadians are staying at home, they’re practising social distancing measures, but the big question is how long do we have to do this for?” he said. “The more information that Canadians are provided with will drive home how important this really is.”

British Columbia released data on Friday that forecast its hospital systems would likely be able to cope with the demand on the current track, but cautioned that was dependent on the increases staying stable.

Alberta has pledged to release its modelling of the virus’s reach by the end of this week.

As of Wednesday morning, there were 9,017 cases in Canada and 105 deaths from the illnesses, several long-term care homes across the country have been hit by the virus, and health-care workers have also been diagnosed with it.

The National Post reported exclusively Wednesday on internal documents showing the federal government believes that it could be at least July before measures taken to prevent the spread of the virus could be relaxed.

Trudeau was asked directly about that estimate at his daily briefing with reporters and said there were many different estimates about how long the crisis could last.

“We have been open and transparent with Canadians on the facts. And I’ve said from the very beginning that there are a wide range of scenarios that we have been looking for, that we’re planning for,” he said.

He said Canadians were in control of the crisis and could reduce the amount of time that restrictive measures were in place by staying home, washing their hands and limiting trips outside.

“We know that they’re going to be in place for a number of more weeks, perhaps more months, but everything depends on how Canadians behave.”

Hajdu said that, like systems around the world, Canada’s system would break under the weight of a huge surge in cases. “Our health system cannot cope with a surge. It was never designed to see that many critical patients all at once.”

Tam said new infections would take weeks to show up in the health-care system.

“Any planning scenario has us potentially overwhelming our health-care system,” she said. “The really difficult message to Canadians is that, on a whole range of these scenarios, this health system isn’t well designed to cope with it if we don’t do something about it now.”