‘INTELLECTUALLY FOOLISH’
CANADA IS ‘PRESENTLY BEHIND IRAN’ IN TRANSPARENCY
Release outbreak projections: prof
As censorship goes, as opacity goes, this is the most intellectually foolish, indefensible example that I’ve ever seen — amir attaran, professor of law and medicine at the University of Ottawa
Justin Trudeau’s reluctance to release projections that model the COVID-19 outbreak was called “indefensible” on Thursday.
After several days of facing questions about releasing the models, the prime minister hinted on Thursday that Canadians would see national epidemiological modelling information about the outbreak “in the coming days.”
But his failure to release the information immediately drew fierce criticism.
“As censorship goes, as opacity goes, this is the most intellectually foolish, indefensible example that I’ve ever seen,” said Amir Attaran, who is a professor of both law and medicine at the University of Ottawa and has a doctorate in immunology and infectious disease. “It’s shocking. I mean, I’m almost speechless on this because there is absolutely no traditional reason for keeping this secret.”
Attaran said Canadians need to know what information the government is using to make policy decisions about the pandemic. These models can also provide crucial feedback to the government. For example, a study from the Imperial College in London predicted half a million deaths in the United Kingdom if drastic interventions weren’t undertaken, prompting a policy U-turn from the British government.
“I’ll give you examples of two countries not exactly celebrated for their transparency that have released their COVID-19 models. One is Singapore and the other is Iran,” said Attaran. “In transparency and accountability, we are presently behind Iran. Let that sink in.”
The models could show how many cases, hospitalizations and deaths the government is expecting as the pandemic spreads through the country. It may also reveal how long Canadians can expect to be stuck in their homes, grinding their lives and the economy to a halt as they attempt to stop the spread of the disease.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who was also initially hesitant to release the province’s models, reversed course Thursday. He said Ontario’s top medical officials would brief the public on Friday.
“I have to be up-front with people, and I’m going to be, and people will see some really stark figures tomorrow,” he said.
“You deserve the same information I have. You deserve to see the same data I see when I am making decisions.”
Trudeau also softened his stance Thursday, indicating his government was working on releasing the modelling information, but he said they’re working with provinces to ensure they have the best data to be able to paint a clear picture.
“That is sophisticated modelling work that’s being worked on right now, that is ongoing and we look forward to sharing more with Canadians in the coming days,” he said.
He said he did not believe just releasing a wide-ranging scenario was helpful.
“I think people can imagine a range of scenarios that show everything from everyone gets suddenly better within the next few weeks to the situation that keeps getting worse,” he said. “There’s a range out there and just highlighting that range is not as useful or important as being able to get clearer numbers and clearer analysis of what we are likely to face.”
Attaran said the best way to get Canadians to take public health advice seriously is to show them how it impacts their lives.
“I would not only disclose our model but I would make a simplified version of it available on a Government of Canada website, and I would invite Canadians to play with it,” said Attaran. ” I would invite Canadians to move the slider that says how intense our social distancing is. It would make people understand clearly that there’s a trade-off between the intensity of social distancing and the speed with which we emerge from this nightmare.”
Even former health minister Jane Philpott, a former physician who is now working at a COVID-19 assessment centre, lobbied the government on Thursday to release the modelling information.
“This is not the time to hide bad news. This includes real-time updates, opensource data, best/worse case projections — in short, we’d like radical transparency,” Philpott wrote on Twitter.
U.S President Donald Trump released American projections earlier this week indicating there could be between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths as a result of the outbreak there.
Health Minister Patty Hajdu said the models need better information than is currently available to paint an accurate picture.
“In order to do modelling, we need to have accurate data, and the provinces and territories have been working really hard to get to a place where they can provide us with that.”
Suzanne Bernier, a crisis management specialist who worked on the SARS epidemic in Toronto, said Canadians need to feel like they’re getting the truth from their leaders or they’ll turn to other, less reliable sources of information.
With so many variables changing every day, Bernier said her best guess is that authorities are concerned about the accuracy of the data that would be provided by an epidemiological model.
If people lose confidence in the information coming from governments and health authorities, though, they will either stop taking the advice seriously or they will start panicking, she said.
“The way that you can best solve this is to be upfront and honest and open ahead of time, so that people don’t turn to either one,” said Bernier. “Unfortunately, I’m seeing this is happening a bit too late.”