Care-home deaths break the modelling forecast
Trudeau calls on Canadians to protect seniors
OTTAWA • As Canada’s official death toll from COVID-19 passed 1,000 on Wednesday, the centre of attention is increasingly on the long-term care homes that are being ravaged by the virus and driving up the fatality rate.
The quickly rising death count — jumping by more than 100 on both Tuesday and Wednesday — comes even as Canada’s overall situation is improving. The national growth rate in COVID-19 cases is easing, and the country appears to be approaching the peak of the first wave of infections. Even the hardest-hit provinces of Ontario and Quebec are seeing small declines in people in intensive care due to the virus.
“The epidemic is slowing down,” said Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, on Wednesday. She said identified cases are now doubling every 10 days; it was every three days in late March.
But the death toll has still risen faster than forecasted by federal modelling, which had Canada at 500-700 deaths by April 16. It instead stood at 1,010 by Wednesday evening.
Tam has said close to half of all deaths are now attributed to long-term care homes.
At news conferences on Wednesday, the dire situation in care homes was at the top of the agenda.
“The uncomfortable and tragic truth is that the very places that care for our elderly are the most vulnerable to COVID-19,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said. “We all need to do better. We all need to take leadership for the seniors who’ve built this country.”
Trudeau said he’ll be raising the issue with premiers on a Thursday call, and will work with the provinces to get a wage boost in place “as quickly as possible” for essential workers making less than $2,500 per month, including those in care homes.
“For many workers looking after the most vulnerable Canadians, including seniors and those with disabilities, we know conditions have gotten more difficult over the past weeks, and you need support right now,” Trudeau said. “As we face an unprecedented threat to public health, you are our most important line of defence.
We will do whatever we can to help you do your job and support you through this time.”
Ontario and Quebec are seeing the worst outbreaks in care homes, and have announced emergency measures over the past few days to try to contain the spread while keeping staffing levels sufficient.
“The reality is, despite our best efforts, we’re dealing with a wildfire at our longterm care homes right now,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said this week. The province’s chief medical officer David Williams said Wednesday that Ontario now has outbreaks at 98 homes, and has seen 145 long-term care deaths (although this number is likely low, as the province’s data lags behind local health units).
At least three Ontario facilities have now seen more than 20 deaths due to COVID-19: Pinecrest Nursing Home in Bobcaygeon with 29, Eatonville Care Centre in Toronto with 25, and Seven Oaks in Toronto with 22. Others are not far behind.
Ford and health officials in Ontario are coming under heavy fire for not moving faster on protecting longterm care homes, despite having promised a “ring of steel” around the vulnerable centres. Ontario has issued an order that staff will now be restricted to working only in one facility, but it doesn’t take effect until next week while the logistics are sorted out. By contrast, British Columbia had announced such an order on March 26, and it took effect last week.
Ontario is also increasing testing and bringing in strong infection control measures at all of the homes, Ford said Wednesday. He even suggested major systemic changes may be needed. “Today we’re throwing everything we’ve got at our long-term care homes,” he said.
In Quebec, the health department reports 41 care homes are now dealing with serious outbreaks, while a further 104 have smaller-scale infections. At least three homes have seen more than 25 deaths. Most notoriously, police are investigating a Montreal care home where 31 residents died amid squalid conditions (though it’s unclear how many were due to COVID-19).
Quebec Premier François Legault has said more than 1,200 care-home staff are infected and can’t work, and has pleaded for qualified people such as physicians to come forward to help with staffing. The province is also redeploying staff from hospitals. Quebec has now reported 487 deaths from COVID 19 — nearly half of Canada’s total — and Legault said last week that 45 per cent of Quebec’s deaths are tied to long-term care homes.
Tam said she still feels “cautious optimism” about Canada’s situation going forward, given the slow growth rate in cases. But she said it’s too soon to let up on physical distancing measures, and it will be a long, slow process of managing the decline in cases.
“We’ve got many challenges still to deal with, including managing the outbreaks in long-term care facilities,” she said. “The main message for all Canadians is actually not to let go ... We’re doing a great job. Let’s continue that until we can get to the bottom of that hill and then look at what that new normal would look like.”