The truth behind cancelled surgeries

Can Nova Scotia killings ever be fully explained? Phil Gurski asks.

We are reeling today in the aftermath of the massacre in Nova Scotia. At least 18 are dead, including an RCMP officer, an elementary school teacher, two nurses and others, in addition to the alleged gunman, a 51-yearold denturist. More bodies may still be found as several homes appear to be have been torched.

As in all cases like these, the predominant question is: Why? Why would someone do something like this? Why would a man ruin so many lives and leave a trail of mourning and suffering in the wake of his murderous spree? Why do crimes of this scale happen periodically in Canada? (The fact they occur less frequently than in our neighbour to the south is of little solace today.)

The unfortunate truth is that we may never get a complete answer. The killer is dead and cannot therefore explain his motives. Unless he left behind some rationale, something he said to someone in recent days, a social media post, or, in the bestcase scenario, a “manifesto” of sorts, we may struggle to understand the mindset of the assassin. This would prove frustrating; we simply need to know why.

The RCMP investigation is only just underway. There are multiple crime scenes to secure and sift. The murders happened over a 50-kilometre span of central Nova Scotia. All this will take time and resources, in a period of what is perhaps a stretched police service that must deal with COVID-19 as well.

Nevertheless, there are already those acting as Monday-morning quarterbacks, weighing in, often with no actual access to information, on what happened and why. Some things that have been reported so far:

The gunman was “bullied” in high school.

He was a successful denturist but his business had been hit hard by the province-mandated physical isolation requirements.

He was an RCMP aficionado who liked to refurbish former police vehicles.

There may have been a broken relationship thrown into the mix.

All of this is of some interest but far from an “explanation” for his actions. For instance:

Many people were bullied in high school or saw that particular period as stressful; they didn’t lash out.

Many other business owners have been negatively affected by COVID-19 without going after other citizens.

The obsession with police would explain why he appeared to be wearing a uniform, but if he were a frustrated law enforcement wannabe, would he not have targeted real cops?

We have all been through relationships that failed. This is not a sufficient or normal condition for what just happened.

At the end of it all, we are complex beings. We are the amalgam of our DNA, our family relationships, our interaction with friends and co-workers, and the events that surround us. Attempting to establish one aspect that is determinative in nature is a fool’s errand.

As a former CSIS analyst who worked on homegrown Islamist terrorism and radicalization for 15 years, I will be watching for the following in the days and weeks to come:

Was there any indication (what some call “leakage”) that the man was contemplating violent acts? If so, why were these not taken note of and reported? Were people dismissive? Did they not want to “get involved?”

What were the assailant’s social media and online activities like in the past few months? Any clues to him having reached a “breaking point?”

Did he have a history with law enforcement for anything remotely violent in nature? We are told he was not on the RCMP’s radar for this sort of thing.

Can we corroborate what evidence there is from multiple sources (this is the sine qua non of intelligence collection and analysis)?

We may get no answers to some or all of these questions. A good analogy is the 2017 mass shootings in Las Vegas, where, two-and-a-half years later, we still have no insight into why the gunman carried out his heinous acts (and never will, in all likelihood).

This is a truly heart-rending episode. Let us stand together as Canadians, as humans, and support those on the front lines of the investigation, as well as those suffering most. And let us not engage in idle or ill-informed speculation.

Phil Gurski is the director of the security program at the University of Ottawa and a 32-year intelligence veteran. He is president/CEO of Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting.