Survey shows support for expanding boundary
Responses show some support for expanding city’s urban boundary
A poll commissioned by one of Ottawa’s big development lobbyists illustrates the mountain small community groups have to climb if they’re going to convince city council to refuse a staff recommendation to expand the urban boundary.
Robb Barnes, the executive director of Ecology Ottawa, observed the “vast gulf in resources between the two sides” of the urban boundary fight, which, at an organizational level, has environmental groups and community associations up against home builders.
The city’s planning department is recommending the addition of between 1,350 and 1,650 hectares of land inside the urban boundary as part of writing a new official plan. Councillors on two land-use committees will make a recommendation on the urban boundary at the end of a virtual joint meeting Monday.
Ecology Ottawa and other community groups want to stop the expansion of the urban boundary. However, the homebuilding industry thinks the city is proposing an overly ambitious intensification target and believes even more land should be added inside the urban boundary.
There’s another challenge for groups pushing for a freeze on the urban boundary: it seems people are OK with an increase to the suburban development area.
The Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA) paid EKOS Research to see how local residents view the housing market and the future of residential development.
Results of a survey of 770 adults suggested 43 per cent of people support having more low-rise homes and multi-unit housing coupled with “some” urban boundary expansion. Thirty-two per cent said they preferred the same types of homes in their neighbourhood and “more” boundary expansion, while 20 per cent want “more tall buildings to avoid boundary expansion.”
EKOS conducted the online survey between April 15 and April 23 using a randomly selected research panel and released the results Thursday. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Frank Graves, president of EKOS, said people generally aren’t engaged in arguments about where new homes should be built when it comes to the urban boundary debate.
“I think the issue of intensification versus boundary expansion is not the way the public would think about this,” Graves said.
“The critical issue driving all of this is acute anxieties of affordability.”
The EKOS research shows people are skeptical that the next generation will be able to afford homes in Ottawa. For people surveyed who have an opinion on the issue, they would rather drive to a nearby town to buy a home rather than renting inside the city if Ottawa housing prices keep rising.
When it comes to how the city should make sure there’s enough housing, 59 per cent indicated a “balance” of land expansion and intensification and 23 per cent said the new homes should be in existing areas, while 13 per cent thought new communities in surrounding areas was the best approach.
Opinions on where new homes should be built differ in the city’s regions, according to the EKOS research.
“If you’re living downtown, you’re more likely to want to have new homes in existing neighbourhoods, but when you move out to Kanata and rural areas, you see a lot more receptiveness to new communities in surrounding areas,” Graves said.
Graves said people’s concerns about the environment are also captured in the research, with green space in developments placing second in an open-ended question about the most important issues facing the city in the next official plan.
Barnes said the EKOS research highlights real concerns about housing affordability, but he doesn’t believe the answer is expanding the urban boundary, partly because it will be expensive for city taxpayers to run more municipal services to far-flung communities.
The city staff report supporting a mixed intensification and urban boundary scenario has “huge gaps” on the costs and the greenhouse gas implications of suburban sprawl, Barnes said.
The COVID -19 restrictions have changed how advocacy groups are mobilizing this year compared to past urban boundary controversies at city hall.
These days, with the possibility of large-scale demonstrations impossible, public opposition and support can only be gauged by posts and banter on the internet. City council members can also judge who’s speaking the loudest through emails, calls and petitions.
Barnes said a petition to stop expanding the urban boundary has about 3,000 names.
Ecology Ottawa would be knocking on doors in the suburbs if not for the public health crisis, Barnes said.
The battle might appear lopsided.
On one side, the development lobby is drawing up intensification maps, buying ads and commissioning research.
“On the other side, you’ve got small little non-profit. It’s purely volunteer driven,” Barnes said as Ecology Ottawa and other like-minded groups and individuals prepared for a “live online rally” Friday.
“On the other hand,” he said, “I think we’ve got the people power.”
If you’re living downtown, you’re more likely to want to have new homes in existing neighbourhoods.