City's climate plan another foray into the delusional
To call the city of Ottawa's new climate change plan ambitious would be to grossly understate. The word delusional more closely captures the spirit of the city's scheme to eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions generated in Ottawa by 2050. The miracle can be accomplished for the bargain price of just $57.4 billion. Yes, billion.
To put that in context, the city's annual budget is about $3.7 billion. Not that councillors think the entire $57.4 billion will come from property taxes, of course. They hope that most of it will come in the form of federal and provincial money, or private investment.
The climate change plan has something in common with its cousin the homelessness plan. In both cases, the city declared an emergency. When councillors followed up with an unfunded $1-billion scheme to chip away at homelessness over the next 10 years, one would have thought they had reached the height of wishful thinking. Hardly, as it turns out. In comparison to the climate plan, the homelessness strategy is merely a foothill.
The plans have other similarities. In both cases, councillors are promoting unachievable goals in areas where they have limited jurisdiction and almost no money to spend. If climate change and housing shortages are to be resolved, it will be the federal and provincial governments doing the resolving, not the city.
Even the Trudeau government hasn't a clue how to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, but at least it has some money and authority to act. Provincial governments can be players, too.
But a city? Not so much. Ottawa has set aside $2.6 million from Hydro Ottawa dividends to start the ball rolling. It won't roll very far.
What Ottawa's plan will do is kick off a multiyear planning exercise. Clearly, a great deal of staff and consultant time has been spent on developing the latest report and it's only the beginning. It will generate a flurry of future planning, hopefully in darkened rooms with the heat turned down.
What will come of it all in the end is hard to say, although a betting person would lean heavily toward not much. Not that there isn't benefit for city councillors. This is a gift not only to this group of politicians, but to councillors for a generation to come. When asked about the existential crisis of climate change, they will be able to point to their plan, and if it's falling a little short in the real world, that would be the fault of other governments who failed to pony up sufficient funds.
Perhaps those governments will find the city's pitch irresistible. The city report estimates that the $57.4-billion “investment” will net a return of $87.7 billion through operating and maintenance savings, energy savings, carbon price savings and revenue from local power generation. The city plan even cites an increase in “equity and inclusion” as a benefit.
Those who are demanding dramatic climate action will be cheered by the city's plan to do something, which is much more achievable than actually doing something. Part marks to councillors for asking how much it will cost to follow up on their climate emergency, but they need to pay attention to the answer.
The climate plan calls for $1.6 billion a year in new spending for the next decade. About $600 million of that is for areas of direct city responsibility, like transit, transportation, fleet, and retrofit of public buildings. The city hopes other levels of government and businesses will come up with $1 billion a year. They aren't going to pay for everything.
The climate mega-plan goes to a city committee next week, then on to council. Councillors need to remember that their three-per-cent tax increase limit is barely enough to provide a mediocre level of basic services. How high are they prepared to raise taxes and what existing services will they cut to fund their quixotic effort to save the planet?