Budget process may give more people a say, and you can thank the pandemic

Having one million Ottawa residents largely confined to their homes without opportunities to dine out or take their kids to minor hockey games might present a golden opportunity for city council members to understand what people need from their municipal government in 2021.

The usually sparsely attended feedback sessions in community centres won't happen this month because of the COVID-19 public health crisis, forcing the city to park its travelling budget road show in favour of live online consultations.

What's lost with the face-to-face interactions at those events could be made up by the potentially larger reach of the consultations.

With budget consultations traditionally happening during the early-evening hours, residents won't have to scarf down their dinners and hightail it to an event at the other side of their wards.

The virtual consultations mean people can enjoy their meals — or bake a cake, take a bath, do squats — at the same time as learning about a $4-billion municipal budget and chiming in with advice.

Never has there been such an easy opportunity for residents to participate in a live budget consultation and, ironically, they can thank the pandemic for that.

A 2013 city project on public consultations (yes, a consultation on consultations) couldn't have predicted a time when the city would have to move quickly to embrace web-based options, not only as one of the consultation tools, but the consultation tool.

This next budget will be the most difficult in the amalgamated city's history because there's no way to predict how much revenue will come in and how much spending will be required as the pandemic spills into 2021.

The financial consequences for households are already poised to be significant, judging by the council-endorsed budget parameters.

Property taxes are set to increase three per cent. Transit taxes are on track for a 4.6-per-cent hike and fares could rise 2.5 per cent. Water bills will go up and so will other program user fees.

Since the projected 2021 finances are dismal, the city, which legally can't budget operational deficits, is banking on more money from the upper governments.

Residents don't know yet what services might be on the chopping block if the bailout doesn't come. City management hasn't floated those plans yet.

The upcoming virtual consultations might be the only chance residents get to tell council members what programs should be protected if the city needs to make major service cuts.

It's up to councillors to lead budget consultations in their wards. At the city's website, a special consultation page on the 2021 budget includes the times for the virtual meetings, and fair warning, councillors want people to register in advance in some cases.

Getting people engaged in the annual budgeting process has confounded staff and politicians, mostly because to residents it's not clear if they can affect the draft budget this late in the game.

Residents will be asked to provide ideas over the next two weeks before the mayor and city management unveil the draft 2021 budget on Nov. 4. Because the window of time is so small, the city's preliminary forecasts for 2021 are likely already established, albeit in pencil.

When the draft budget is revealed, there's still about a month for changes to be proposed, but by that time the financial estimates have already gone through deep analysis and consideration. It's nearly impossible for council members to make even the slightest change. It's why there's hardly a surprise when the draft budget presented in November each year is usually identical to the final budget approved in December.

But there's always that opportunity just before the draft budget drops when residents can make one final attempt to influence the preliminary numbers.

The city has tried different ways to reach taxpayers in the past.

For example, Mayor Jim Watson in June 2015 hosted a town hall by telephone where people could call in and ask questions about the subsequent year's budget. Top city bureaucrats huddled around Watson's boardroom ready to answer.

Watson, who helps craft the draft budget, has spoken to almost all councillors about their 2021 priorities. Along with his staff, he'll speak with newly elected Cumberland Coun. Catherine Kitts next week.

There's no Watson-led virtual consultation scheduled this month, but his spokesman, Patrick Champagne, said the mayor “will be closely monitoring all budget consultations as he has done in previous years to get a good sense of what is being said about the city's budget priorities for 2021.”

Added Champagne: “Mayor Watson continues to believe that council needs to keep our city affordable with a modest tax increase while positioning itself for a strong postCOVID economic recovery.”

The upcoming virtual budget consultations could still move some numbers. It depends on how much people care about the funding of municipal programs and how much they're willing to pay.

When the attendance numbers at budget consultations are low, the common assumptions at city hall are that people either don't have time to participate or simply don't care.

There's another widely circulated hypothesis: people must be happy with the status quo.