Vaccine woes hurting Liberals
The Liberals are losing support because of vaccine supply disruptions, according to a new poll.
Abacus Data's new poll of 3,930 Canadians suggests if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would win 32 per cent support (down three points from last month), the Conservatives 31 per cent (unchanged) and the NDP 18 per cent (up 1 per cent).
The public is finely tuned to vaccine news and almost all of it right now is bad from the government's point of view.
Canada has tumbled down the University of Oxford's ranking of shots administered per capita — sitting at number 33, having been in the top 10 last month. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney characterized the slip as “devastating for Canada.”
Maj. Gen. Dany Fortin, the military commander leading the vaccine logistics at the Public Health Agency of Canada, said on Thursday that there is “no visibility” on how much Moderna vaccine will arrive in the weeks ahead.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford called the delays in delivery of both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines “frustrating,” noting that retired general Rick Hillier, who is leading the province's distribution task force, visited mass vaccination sites in Guelph and Toronto to find both were empty.
While President Joe Biden's administration injected 1.3 million Americans on Wednesday, Canada inoculated just 13,678 of its citizens.
Justin Trudeau has staked his reputation on securing four million doses of the Pfizer and two million doses of the Moderna vaccine by the end of March.
The Abacus poll suggests Trudeau's approval rating has dipped into negative territory in the past month and that 48 per cent of respondents think the government is doing a terrible job securing vaccines. One in three of those respondents voted Liberal at the last election.
But while the frustration and anxiety at the government's vaccine performance has softened Liberal support, it has not yet sent it to seek refuge in other parties. Conservative support has not increased and even more people have soured on leader Erin O'Toole, according to Abacus.
Experienced heads in the government see the current predicament as nothing more than turbulence, which will end when vaccine reinforcements arrive.
That may be very soon. Sources suggest approval for AstraZeneca's vaccine from Health Canada is “very close,” perhaps as soon as Friday.
The government's expectation is that approval in the next few days could see small quantities of the 20 million doses Canada has contracted to buy arrive as soon as March.
Pfizer's vaccine was approved on Dec. 9 and a shipment arrived in Montreal just four days later.
Health Canada is also assessing Johnson & Johnson's single-dose vaccine, which would add another 38 million doses to Canada's inventory.
By April and May, a bigger problem than supply may be capacity at the provincial level to distribute such a huge surge in vaccines.
Anita Anand, the procurement minister, told the industry committee that all Canadians who want a vaccination will be able to get one by the end of September, based on deliveries of the two approved vaccines. “But if others come on line, those timelines can hopefully be moved up,” she said. The government released an estimate last week that suggested 23 million Canadians could be inoculated by the end of June, if new vaccines are approved.
We have already seen the fickleness of vaccine production, not to mention the prospect of pandemic protectionism curbing exports. The government's more rosy estimates may end up being an exercise in wishful thinking.
But the more vaccines that are approved, the less detrimental delays in the delivery of any one would prove.
The political implications for the opposition parties are grim. The Liberals are likely to be much more popular in the summer and the fall than they are now.
One option would be to risk a vote of no-confidence at the end of this month, while the government's winter of discontent is fresh in the public's memory.
The Abacus poll indicated the Bloc Québécois is running ahead of the 32 per cent it secured in the 2019 election, so Yves-François Blanchet would not take much convincing to bring down the government.
The NDP says it has paid off its debt from the last election and its polling support is relatively healthy.
Jagmeet Singh is keen to rehabilitate his reputation, after being labelled Trudeau's apple polisher when he supported the Liberals in key votes last year.
It is O'Toole who is in the trickiest spot. His Conservative party is becalmed in the polls, despite Trudeau's problems, while his personal approval rating is at its lowest since becoming leader. It seems that the more people (particularly women) see of him, the less they warm to him.
That is not an ideal backdrop against which to launch an election campaign. Still, his party is in a statistical tie with a government that is bleeding support.
The chance to strike might not come 'round again.