Lockdown restrictions to be eased

But some experts call for caution as COVID-19 variants spread

Ottawa residents will be able to return to restaurants, gyms and more — with restrictions — as early as next week, even as provincial officials warn of continuing serious threats from COVID-19.

On Monday, Premier Doug Ford announced an end to the stay-athome order that has been in place across the province since Boxing Day, and a gradual loosening of restrictions by regions, depending on their case numbers.

“Today we are seeing some sunlight through the clouds,” Ford said during a news conference. “But we are not clear of this storm yet.”

Some experts, though, are advising the province to wait, especially with more transmissible variants spreading in Ontario and vaccine rollout lagging.

Three regions with low case counts — Renfrew County; Kingston, Frontenac, Lennox and Addington; and Hastings and Prince Edward counties — will be out of lockdown as of Wednesday, when the provincewide stay-at-home order expires. The rest of the province will move into updated grey-lockdown restrictions for a week, which allows non-essential stores to reopen at 25-per-cent capacity and 10 people to gather outdoors.

Ski hills, which have been closed since December, will also be able to reopen across most of the province, with some restrictions.

Ford said protecting the health and safety of Ontario residents remains the top priority, “but we must also consider the severe impact COVID-19 is having on our businesses.”

On Feb. 16, most of the province, except the Toronto, York and Peel regions, will return to restrictions based on local numbers. Toronto, York and Peel will be out of strict lockdown, depending on their case counts, as of Feb. 22.

Ottawa will most likely return to orange status, the city's medical officer of health, Dr. Vera Etches, told the board of health Monday night.

“It means that there will be additional opportunities to come into close contact with others as we go about accessing more services,” Etches said. “I want to underline to people that we need to take a cautious approach.”

She urged residents to be careful to observe pandemic health measures.

Although Ottawa's COVID-19 levels remained “manageable” at the orange level in the fall, she said, “there can be even more rigour required if more transmissible variants take root.”

There have been six cases of the U.K. variant and one of the South African variant in the community, Etches said.

But numbers have to remain at that level “for some time” before Ottawa can shift zones, said spokesperson Nikki Hudson. She said Ottawa's information will be updated before Feb. 16, once monitoring indicators have been reviewed by the province.

The current red zone status allows up to 10 people in restaurants, with some restrictions; up to 10 people in indoor gym classes and weight rooms; up to 10 indoors for events and meetings; and stores open at 50-per-cent capacity. The orange zone has fewer restrictions, allowing up to 50 people in restaurants, for example.

Provincial officials say they'll put regions back into lockdown quickly if variants and cases spread rapidly.

But some experts say Ontario is likely headed for a third wave in coming months, especially if it returns to restrictions that were in place last fall as cases rose rapidly.

Doris Grinspun, head of the Registered Nurses' Association of Ontario, and others say the province should wait a few weeks to determine whether reopening schools increases cases, and to assess the impact of the new variants.

Grinspun said the province is moving too fast.

“We should be focused on planning for the rollout of the vaccine. Instead, 10 days from now we will be distracted by an unnecessary surge (in cases).”

Dr. Doug Manuel, a senior scientist at The Ottawa Hospital and professor at uOttawa's school of epidemiology and public health, said the province's colour-coded COVID Response Framework should be tightened, with tougher restrictions at lower thresholds.

“What we had in the fall wasn't really working. That is why we are in lockdown now,” Manuel said.

The new variants, which spread significantly faster than the original variant, are reasons for further caution, he said.

Rawyat Deonandan, a uOttawa epidemiologist, agreed the province should wait to loosen restrictions to evaluate the impact of the new variants and of reopened schools.

“If the purpose of the lockdown was to buy us time, we haven't used that time well,” he said.

Deonandan said there doesn't seem to be a clear understanding of how to manage variant cases.

And based on the pattern set during the 1918 flu pandemic, he said a third wave is likely this spring.

Two factors could change that outlook, he said: vaccinations, which could quash the wave, or the variants, which could drive it.

Given all the risk factors, Deonandan said it makes sense to move slowly with reopening until the province can assess the impact of schools reopening, and that requires better surveillance.

Meanwhile, Renfrew County, which has had consistently low case counts, returns to the green zone Wednesday.

“Our numbers are good. We are confident we can do this,” said medical officer of health Dr. Rob Cushman.

“We can't return to normal — not

yet — but we can transition out of the provincewide shutdown.”

He said people should still stay at home “as much as possible” so that small businesses can remain open, children can remain in schools and the province's most vulnerable residents are protected.