WHAT'S REAL AND WHAT'S A MIRAGE?

There’s no true measuring stick in NHL without best-against-best competition

The Florida Panthers, who on Monday beat the Tampa Bay Lightning for the second time in three games, are now only one point behind Tampa in the Central Division with a game in hand. But before they become my dark horse pick to win the Stanley Cup — or even emerge as a playoff lock — I want to see what they can do against Boston and Toronto or Vegas.

I want to see them play against teams in a division where five of the eight teams don't have a losing record.

That, of course, isn't happening. Not in a year where COVID -19 has made inter-divisional play obsolete. Not in a year where some divisions already look a lot stronger than others.

That's why this year's playoffs is going to be so difficult to handicap. And why I still don't know if Florida, Toronto or any of the teams that have burst out of the gate this year are for real.

As Panthers head coach Joel Quenneville said, there aren't enough measuring sticks lying around these days.

Every division contains at least one bad team. Some, like the Central, East and West divisions, have three.

We don't get to see the best against the best anymore. We don't get Boston against Vegas. Or Tampa Bay against Toronto. Instead, we get blowouts and teams padding their stats against Ottawa. And when Ottawa happens to finally win a game, we get fans calling for star Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly to be traded.

Without more best-on-best competition, it's becoming impossible to know what's for real and what's a mirage.

After Florida beat Tampa Bay twice, Panthers goalie Chris Driedger said “This was a big test for us. People were saying this is the best team in the league and we just beat them two out of three.”

That's true. What also is true is that Florida still hasn't played the 10-3-0 Carolina Hurricanes or a Dallas Stars team that reached last year's Stanley Cup final. They don't know if they are good or are simply good at beating up on Nashville, Chicago and Detroit.

“I think everybody has a measuring stick as to where the strengths are in the divisions and you can handicap that probably with time and how teams do in the playoffs,” said Quenneville. “I think if you were to forecast who had the strongest division at the start of the season, it would have tough to say who is the best.”

Here's what we do know: what was once the Atlantic Division was a lot more competitive than we previously gave it credit for.

“I still think that had you assembled the division from last year to this year, it would have been a heck of a battle to get into a playoff spot,” said Quenneville. He's not wrong.

The Panthers, who swapped out six of their top nine forwards in the off-season, look like a different team this year. But the bigger change was a geographic one. Thy don't have to compete with Boston, Toronto or Montreal for one of the playoff spots in the Atlantic Division. They don't even have to play any of them.

While the worst teams in the North (Ottawa), East (Buffalo) and Central (Detroit) all came out of the Atlantic Division, so did the best teams around the league.

Boston leads the East with a 10-2-2 record, Toronto (11-3-2) and Montreal (9-4-2) are the top two teams in the North, and Florida (9-2-2) and Tampa Bay (10-3-1) are atop the Central.

In other words, there's a reason why the Maple Leafs have found it so difficult to get out of the first round of the playoffs. And, as Quenneville said, there's also a reason why the Panthers have gone five years without even qualifying for the playoffs.

Maybe that's why the window has never been as wide open for Toronto, Montreal and Florida as it is this year.

We're already seeing how much easier it is for the Leafs and Habs to contend for a playoff spot when they're freed up from playing the Bruins and Lightning, or how much better the Panthers look when they can pad their stats against the Red Wings and Predators.

There are still a lot of games left to be played, but don't expect the Panthers to miss out again this year.

And if you're Toronto, advancing to the second round should be a lot easier when you're facing a team like Edmonton rather than Boston.