Shelve election until COVID-19 is truly behind us

It's not business as usual, says Dr. Charles S. Shaver.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has shaved off his beard and trimmed his hair. An election seems imminent. But is this really wise considering the risk of flare-ups of the pandemic?

On June 1, Yukon had no active cases and a sick-leave plan that paid $378 daily up to 10 days. In Whitehorse, 72 per cent had received the second doses of COVID-19 vaccine. Yet only 10 days later, an outbreak occurred in unvaccinated persons. By July 6, there were 360 new cases — the highest per capita case rate in Canada. By July 13, 480. This shows we can never fully let down our guard.

Vaccines heralded as a panacea to the pandemic tend to weaken adherence to other safety measures such as distancing and wearing masks — even for the unvaccinated. This is substantiated by the record number of Americans vacationing over the July 4 weekend. More than 47 million persons travelled by car or airplane — about 40 per cent higher than last year.

In Canada, Trudeau prides himself on the fact that about 43 per cent of persons have received both doses — similar to the worst areas of the United States. For example, the vaccination rate in Ontario is similar to that of South Carolina, Quebec to Arkansas and British Columbia to Alabama. But, doubling every two weeks, the Delta variant of COVID now accounts for half of cases in the U.S. and more than 80 per cent in Ontario; it is six times as contagious as the original strain of the virus.

In most of Canada, the COVID-19 pandemic does seem to be on the wane. In April 2021, Ontario recorded a peak of 4,500 new cases per day; it is now less than 200; and Step 3 of the reopening starts on July 16. Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre is dismantling its field hospital. Ontario has cancelled border controls with Quebec and Manitoba. Alberta has lifted all restrictions and is holding the Calgary Stampede. Saskatchewan dropped its public COVID-19 restrictions on July 11. British

Vaccines heralded as a panacea to the pandemic tend to weaken adherence to other safety measures

Columbia has cancelled most restrictions, though persons are urged to wear masks in public areas. After 14 months, Newfoundland and Labrador will welcome fully vaccinated visitors from all of Canada. Prince Edward Island will do the same. Nova Scotia and Manitoba are beginning to slowly reopen.

Nearly 80 per cent of Canadians age 12 and over have received at least one vaccine dose. However, except in the territories, only 43 per cent of all eligible Canadians have been fully vaccinated. Nearly five million children under age 12 will not qualify for vaccines until fall.

In the U.S., 99 per cent of deaths have been in unvaccinated persons. Yet an Ipsos poll found that nearly 20 per cent of Canadians were hesitant or refused to get the vaccine.

If recurrent waves of this and any future pandemics are to be avoided, the premiers thus cannot rely entirely on vaccines; they must use all the potential tools in their tool boxes. This requires increased rapid testing and contact tracing, adequate paid sick-leave benefits, increased numbers of isolation centres, and greatly enhanced temporary funding for these from the federal government.

For months, premiers relied on the federal Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, but it pays only $450 per week after taxes, persons must apply every week, and remittance may take several weeks. As the CRSB was not improved in the federal budget, Ontario provided three paid sick days at $200 per day. Yukon, British Columbia, Nova Scotia and Manitoba soon initiated a variety of similar, short-term supplemental sick benefits programs. In all of them, sick employees, when needing 10 to 14 days off, would also have to apply for the federal CRSB, with all its defects. Across Canada, there is either no paid leave, or a patchwork of inadequate, overly complicated plans.

With all of these unresolved issues, now is definitely not the time for Trudeau to call an election. As Dr. Michael Gardam of Toronto warned, “If it weren't for the Delta variant, I think there would be a lot more optimism.

"But I think we still have the majority of Canadians who are not really protected.”