Three Ottawa seats could make a big difference
Ottawa will be an important player in this federal election in a way it hasn't been for many a campaign.
The capital, long a Liberal stronghold, is normally written off in the high-stakes game of kingmaker, the honour that usually goes to Greater Toronto with its many voters. The GTA may well decide things, but with three open seats in play, Ottawa is poised to have a bigger say than it has in years. When the margin for victory is so tight, this city could, in a small but significant way, affect the results.
It is hard to remember any time three Liberal incumbents vacated their seats simultaneously, but that's what voters are facing with the retirement of Infrastructure Minister Catherine McKenna in Ottawa Centre, Karen McCrimmon in Kanata-Carleton and Will Amos in Pontiac. Incumbents are often considered favourites in races because they have the advantage of experience, name recognition and local star power. But in open races, the political dynamic changes completely, creating a more level playing field and a contest that becomes more of a battle of equals.
This has created a one-of-a-kind opportunity for the Conservative party and the NDP to make gains in the capital, and a huge challenge for the Liberals to hold on to what they have. The Liberals have 11 of the 12 seats in the National Capital Region, the sole opposition member being Pierre Poilievre in Carleton. If ever there was an opportunity for the Conservatives and New Democrats to take seats from the Liberals in Ottawa, this is it. The big question, however, is, can they do it?
The three retirements certainly complicate the math for the Liberals. They now hold 155 seats nationally and need 15 more to form a majority government. Sounds easy, but the party certainly can't win that majority if it can't hold on in Ottawa. All three retirees were first elected in the Trudeau wave that swept the Liberals to majority in 2015, then re-elected in 2019 in a minority government. Losing seats in Ottawa could spell trouble around the country. The Liberals have little margin for error.
In Ottawa Centre, former Ontario attorney general and one-time rising star in the provincial party Yasir Naqvi is the new face of the Liberals. He was defeated in the 2018 provincial election by the NDP's Joel Harden, but is back to face New Democrat Angella MacEwen, who lost federally in Ottawa West-Nepean in 2019. The Conservative candidate is Carol Clemenhagen, but the party last won the riding in a 1978 byelection and hasn't been a factor there since. The battle is really between the Liberals and the NDP, who have each held the riding multiple times. Five Liberals have held the riding since 1968, compared with three New Democrats. The NDP will fancy its chances, given it won there in the 2018 provincial election. The Liberals however, will take comfort in the fact that McKenna won it in 2015 by defeating the popular Paul Dewar (who died in 2019), and handily won re-election in 2019.
Kanata-Carleton is another riding the Liberals will be sweating over. In 2015, McCrimmon surprised many by winning in what was once considered Conservative heartland. She was re-elected in 2019, but without her star power it's hard to read what might happen now. Ottawa city councillor Jenna Sudds will take on Conservative candidate Jennifer McAndrew, and of the three open seats, this is where the Conservative party has a fighting chance to make a gain. Melissa Coenraad is running for the NDP.
Amos took Pontiac from the NDP in 2015, then beat the Conservative candidate in 2019. It has been held by Liberals, Conservatives and NDP in the past. The race may come down to Liberal Sophie Chatel and Conservative Michel Gauthier.
On paper, the Liberals should like their chances in the three Ottawa-area open seats, but elections are never won on paper. Campaigns matter. This is an election of challenge and opportunity, and all eyes will be on the three open races. They could be difference-makers.