O'Toole pushes for `blue wave'
Liberal, Bloc momentum slows in Quebec
Headed into Canada's 44th federal election, the expectation was Quebec would be a showdown between the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. But rather than throw in the towel, Erin O'Toole is doubling down on efforts to sway Quebecers and pull off a surprise “blue wave.”
The seat tally looks increasingly unpredictable thanks to the Liberals' rocky campaign kickoff and slowing Bloc momentum. Recent polling from Mainstreet research shows the Bloc may actually lose seats in the province, with several in danger of being grabbed by Conservatives.
Polls also show O'Toole slowly but steadily gaining popularity in every region, including Quebec, as Trudeau's support remains unchanged or declines. Combined with a slate of Tory candidates who have the potential to resonate, Conservative prospects are suddenly looking much brighter than even a month ago.
“It's interesting because, in 2015, Mr. Trudeau was more popular than his party in Quebec. Now, the Liberals are more popular than Mr. Trudeau,” says Christian Bourque, executive director and senior vice-president of polling and market research firm Léger. He says that while Trudeau's popularity “could be an issue” in the province, O'Toole is more of a “white canvas that presents an opportunity.”
At dissolution, the Liberals held 35 of Quebec's 78 House of Commons seats, the Bloc Québécois held 32, the Conservatives held 10, and the NDP one. The Conservative share of the province's vote has dropped steadily since 2006, but Quebec is a province known to change political course swiftly and, sometimes, unexpectedly.
According to Léger's most recent polls, Conservative support is currently in the mid-to-high teens in Quebec. To increase their seat count to 12 or 15, Bourque says they'd need to see support somewhere between 20 to 23 per cent, particularly in the St. Lawrence corridor.
Conservative Senator Leo Housakos says the province's votes are more in play than elsewhere in the country. “As a Quebecer who's been engaged in politics here for 40 years, I know the Quebec electorate is a lot more fluid and objective than much of the rest of the country in that they don't have a predetermined perspective and are very open-minded.”
Yet, Conservatives haven't truly inspired Quebec in more than a generation. Stephen Harper's and Andrew Scheer's French language skills were widely panned and both failed to convince Quebecers that they took social and environmental issues like women's rights and climate change seriously.
“In Quebec, you can't be seen or perceived as being socially conservative. It's a no-go,” says Bourque. “But, if you can convince Quebecers you're a modern version of the Progressive Conservative party, more like Joe Clark or Brian Mulroney, there's a chance. If you're seen as just the Reform Party under a new name, it's basically impossible to gain more seats.”
In contrast to his most recent predecessors, O'Toole is very comfortable in French, was born in Montreal, and enjoyed a local swell of support as the only national Conservative leadership campaign to offer the province a unique set of promises. The province was key to his win over Peter MacKay.
Last week, O'Toole sought to repeat the strategy when he signed a “contract” with voters during a Quebec City stop and emphatically declared, “Je suis pro-choix.” While these issues seem settled for O'Toole, who appears willing to pull out all the stops in order to gain traction in Quebec, the question will be whether he can keep the rest of his party in line until election day.
As in 2019, Premier François Legault won't endorse a party or leader to avoid alienating the winner, even banning ministers and office staff from weighing in on political issues. Yet, Legault previously criticized Trudeau's response to Bill 21 — which bans some public-sector workers from wearing religious symbols — opening the door for Conservatives and practically serves them a wedge issue on a platter. Erin O'Toole says he won't touch Quebec's secularism law and continues to emphasize his support for provincial autonomy.
Among the Conservative party's plan to appeal to Bloc voters are proposals to apply the province's language laws to federally regulated businesses and to increase Quebec's power over immigration.
Former MP and current Conservative candidate for Beauport—Limoilou, Alupa A. Clarke says despite the challenges around social issues, there is an opening for his party.
“Quebecers are probably the most conservative people in the country, because it's very conservative to have the fundamental will to protect your own language, culture, identity and politics.”
Clarke is one of the province's more promising Tory candidates. At 35 years old, the millennial says he encourages his party to modernize everything from policies to their visual language. The Conservatives have been polling better than expected among young voters.
“Conservatives need to renew ourselves, but don't forget that millennials are getting older and moving beyond idealism,” he says, referring to Trudeau's appeal in 2015.
It's a sentiment echoed by the Conservative candidate for Brome—Missisquoi, Vincent Duhamel, former global president of Montreal-based asset manager Fiera Capital Corp.
While Duhamel is a retiree entering the political arena, he's more concerned about the future impact of Canada's national debt than giving his generation more advantages.
With a three-decade career that took him to Asia, Duhamel witnessed the Japanese economic crisis firsthand and says he wants to avoid a similar fate here: “The Liberals say they won't balance the budget until 2070. I probably won't be around then, but millennials will be.”
It's a message likely to play well in Quebec where, Bourque the pollster notes, “there's no shortage of fiscal conservatives.”
As for the housing crisis, Clarke channels a strain of generational anger found on social media but largely absent from political stump speeches. “There are people from all over the world investing in houses in Canada, particularly in the GTA, Toronto, and Vancouver. And they don't even live here! It's nonsense.”
His strong stances on issues outside Quebec are also indicative of his and Duhamel's potential for having a national profile, with the latter rumoured to be a potential future finance minister.
“Quebecers are starting to realize that if they want to get anything done in Ottawa and truly have a voice, the way to do it is to vote Conservative,” says Duhamel. The comment reflects a strategic push by Tories to convince Quebecers the best way to avoid a Trudeau majority, or even beat him, isn't to vote Bloc, but blue. If the Liberal campaign continues to falter, the more likely this strategy is to resonate with voters.
Other prominent Conservative candidates in Quebec include former TV broadcaster Frank Cavallaro running in Mount Royal, and former provincial cabinet minister Dominique Vien, running in Bellechasse— Les Etchemins—Lévis.
“There's been a ton of strategic voting in the province since 2011,” says Bourque. “Quebecers have shown they like a balance of power and, in our last poll, while there aren't a ton of undecided voters, close to half of voters are still willing to change their mind. A lot of it will come down to whether it's a close race and whether Mr. O'Toole can convince soft Bloc voters they're better off with a rightof-centre alternative.”