The race is on to join baseball's 500 club
Cruz leads all contenders with 443 homers, but don't count out Harper and Trout
Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera hit his 500th career home run against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, becoming the 28th member of the 500-home-run club.
The 19-year veteran got there with a 400-foot blast off a Steven Matz change-up in the top of the sixth inning. It was his 13th home run of the year and it allowed Cabrera to join Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Dodgers as the only active players to have reached that esteemed milestone.
Cabrera is the sixth player born outside the United States to reach 500 home runs, along with Pujols, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, who was the last to reach the mark in 2015. He's also the first player to hit his 500th home run in a Tigers uniform.
“It's something special for my country, for my family, to be able to do this,” Cabrera said after the game. “I'm really happy.”
The question now becomes: Who will be the next member of the elite club?
Tampa Bay Rays slugger Nelson Cruz is the logical choice. The 41-year-old has 443 career home runs — the only active player other than Pujols and Cabrera with more than 350 — and is showing no signs of slowing down. Cruz is batting .270 with 26 home runs in 2021 and is estimated to end the season with 33 home runs, per Dan Szymborski's projections. That would leave him just 50 shy of the 500 mark.
To figure out his chances of reaching 500, we can use a modified version of the “favourite toy,” a formula created by Bill James that calculates the probability a player achieves a cumulative statistical goal.
Cruz has a 56-per-cent chance to reach 500 home runs, a solid outlook for a player over age
40. That gives Cruz the best chance of any active player. In fact, if Cruz doesn't join the club it could be years before we see anyone else with a fighting chance.
After Cruz, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout have the best chance to reach 500 homers.
Harper is already halfway there, with 254 home runs, and is expected to add eight more by season's end. If he can stay healthy — and he has since 2017 — we could see him start to flirt with 500 home runs in 2028.
Trout would have been considered a shoo-in a year or two ago, but the three-time MVP has just eight home runs in 36 games this season and has been on the 60-day injured list since late June. Still, Trout has a 45-percent chance to reach 500, and it is possible both he and Harper could join the club around the same time.
After Harper and Trout, Nolan Arenado (260 home runs at age 30), Manny Machado (245 home runs at age 29) and Pete Alonso (97 home runs at almost age 27) have the next best chances at hitting 500.
Alonso led the majors in home runs as a rookie in 2019 (53), and although he has just three years in the majors, his ability to hit the long ball is already putting him on the radar for career power accomplishments.