NDP not afraid of Project Fear
Late ad buys aim to capitalize on popular leader
JAGMEET SINGH'S STOCK HAS NEVER BEEN HIGHER. BUT HIS APPEAL GOES BEYOND LIKABILITY — WHEN RESPONDENTS ARE ASKED ABOUT UNDERSTANDING ORDINARY CANADIANS, SINGH OUTPOLLS JUSTIN TRUDEAU THREE TO ONE. — JOHN IVISON
Will Project Fear work again in 2021? In the final week of every modern election, the Liberals render the Conservatives as pantomime villains — “they're behind you!” — to scare skittish progressives back into their ranks.
It worked in 2004 — the Liberals saw their support rise, while the NDP, which had been polling at around 18 per cent, saw their support shrink to 15.7 per cent. It worked less well in 2006, when the New Democrats held onto their vote in the final week.
In 2019, the NDP averaged 15 per cent support in Nanos Research's tracking poll in the week before the leaders' debates.
An energetic performance by leader Jagmeet Singh saw that number rise to 19 per cent in the week after the debate. But drained of advertising dollars, the NDP could not capitalize and slipped back to 16 per cent support on election day, a result that returned just 24 MPs.
The party is intent that progressives won't get fooled again. The Liberals have already rolled out doomsaying attack ads urging left-of-centre voters not to allow Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole “to take Canada backward” to a time of for-profit health care, legal assault weapons, anti-abortion legislation and climate change inaction.
To hammer home the point, former prime minister Stephen Harper, appears like Lord Voldemort on a quest to rid the world of socialists.
But New Democrat officials said they have a plan for Project Fear this time around.
“We've all seen that movie before and we have a plan that points out the cost of continuing to vote for the Liberals when they don't do the things they said they would do,” said Jennifer Howard, the NDP's campaign director.
There is a sense in NDP circles that this time is different. While very little has gone right for Justin Trudeau, Jagmeet Singh's stock has never been higher. Public polling suggests he is the most popular federal political leader. But his appeal goes beyond likability — when respondents are asked about understanding ordinary Canadians, Singh outpolls Trudeau three to one.
NDP officials say their own research suggests progressive voters are not angry with Trudeau in the same way that anti-vaxx protesters are; rather, they are disappointed over broken promises that they hoped he would keep on electoral reform, pharmacare and affordable housing.
Singh is front and centre in the NDP's efforts to get out its vote, playing on his reputation for authenticity.
Key to that is a digital strategy that targets young voters on platforms that are not being used by other parties, such as TikTok and Twitch. Next week, the party will start running ads on the Nintendo Switch gaming console, with information on how to vote. These are not marginal media — Singh's most popular TikTok video reached five million people.
Team Singh is conscious that it ran out of resources in 2019 and has back-end loaded its advertising buy so that it is weighted toward the end of the campaign.
“From the beginning, we have been really clear that we will not run out of steam at the end,” said Howard.
Other campaigns are quick to point out that Singh's momentum has stalled. If true, he has plateaued at the 20 per cent support mark, nosebleed territory for any NDP leader.
The New Democrats were polling similar numbers at the same time in the 2011 campaign, just prior to overtaking the Liberals and recording their best ever result under the late Jack Layton.
Even the most optimistic NDPer is not predicting 103 MPs. But the party is wellplaced, not only to pick up seats, but to resist the Faustian bargain of strategic voting.