James Miller makes his annual guesses for who will win the Oscars

It’s Academy Awards time and what fun would the Oscars be without predictions? If you have an office pool, chances are you’ll make money if you go with these choices.

Over the past several weeks I’ve been able to scramble around and see all nine films nominated for Best Picture plus most of the others nominated films that are up for significant awards. Here are my picks on who will win, followed by Miller’s pick, which is my favourite of the year.

Best Picture: La La Land. It’s fun, you feel good and it paints L.A. in a wonderful light. Movies about making movies often do well, most recently The Artist, a love letter to the silent film era which won Best Picture a few years back. There’s been a recent backlash against La La Land but a definitive challenger hasn’t come forward. Of the eight other nominated films, everyone seems to like one or the other. It’s La La Land versus the field and I’ll go with the former. (Miller’s pick: Manchester by the Sea.)

Best Actor: The Screen Actors Guild almost always predicts this winner in advance which would give a third Oscar to Denzel Washington. I’m going for the upset and expect Casey Affleck to win for Manchester by the Sea. He was that good. (Miller’s pick: Affleck.)

Best Actress: It won’t be a sweep but La La Land will win the most trophies on Sunday night and as part of its landslide Emma Stone will be named best actress. She did her own singing and dancing, but it was her co-star who learned to play piano. (Miller’s pick: Natalie Portman, Jackie.)

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight). In a film divided into three acts, unfortunately he only appears in the first third of the movie but his brief on-screen performance was one for the ages. Ali had a good year also appearing in Hidden Figures, a Best Picture finalist. His closest challenger, Jeff Bridges, has already won an Oscar so this category, often reserved for a lifetime achievement award, will be based on merit and not a sentimental favourite. (Miller’s pick: Ali.)

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences). She’s due. Never mind that only three of the actresses nominated here are true supporting performances. Davis and Octavia Spencer are more or less coleads in their respective films but the Academy has never clearly defined the rules for a supporting performance. Timothy Hutton (Ordinary People) or Tatum O’Neal (Paper Moon), anybody? (Miller’s pick: Davis.)

Best Original Screenplay/Best Screenplay Adaptation: While La La Land is great in so many ways, like Titanic, its dialogue is the weakest link. With much of La La Land devoted to song, the dialogue is limited. Oscar voters will be able to honour the No. 2 and No. 3 films of the year, Manchester by the Sea will win best original screenplay and Moonlight be screenplay adaptation.

Best Director: As the Best Picture and Director often mirror one another, look for young Damien Chazelle to win for La La Land. Getting this film financed was almost as challenging as shutting down a freeway to shoot its opening number.

Best Original Song: City of Stars from La La Land, it was a focal point in the musical.

In the other categories look for a pretty even split in technical awards between Hacksaw Ridge, Mel Gibson’s epic World War II film and La La Land.

Having seen each of the nine nominated films, they are all very good and worth a watch. Keep an eye open to Netflix or your favourite video rental place (The Book Shop on Main Street) as some of the nominated movies have already been released to video. An Oscar sweep often means a re-release in the theatre. La La Land is one of those films that should be seen on the big screen. (It’s showing tonight in Oliver in case you haven’t seen it.) Hooray for Hollywood. James Miller is editor of The Herald and an Academy Awards historian. Email: editor@pentictonherald.ca