Trudeau Liberals gear up for tussles on climate, premiers
OTTAWA — Twelve months from now, Canadians will pass judgment on the Trudeau government and decide whether its first mandate should be its last or if it deserves another four years.
As the one-year countdown to the next federal election on Oct. 21, 2019 starts ticking, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals appear reasonably well positioned to win a second term.
But a year is a lifetime in politics and the coming one promises to be particularly challenging for the Liberals, beset by a growing phalanx of hostile conservative premiers determined to put a spoke in Trudeau’s pre-election wheel.
In particular, they’re aiming to upend the introduction of a carbon tax — one of Trudeau’s signature policies, the central pillar of the Liberal plan for combating climate change.
It’s the next big thing on the government’s agenda and it’s the pivotal issue upon which Liberal strategists privately believe the next election will turn.
It’s a fight they think they can win.
A recent Angus Reid Institute poll suggests they have reason for optimism.
It suggests half of what the pollster refers to as “maybe” Liberal voters — soft supporters of opposition parties who can be persuaded to back the governing party — agree with Trudeau on the need for a carbon tax.
With his categorical opposition to carbon pricing, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer risks alienating soft Tory supporters.
At the same time, half of those maybeLiberals also support Trudeau’s insistence on expanding the Trans Mountain pipeline to carry Alberta’s oil sands bitumen to B.C.’s coast for shipment overseas — the flip side of the Liberal climate plan, aimed at demonstrating the prime minister’s contention that protecting the environment and growing the economy go hand in hand.
Hence, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s staunch opposition to the pipeline project “is a considerable liability” with soft New Democrat supporters, the polling firm concludes.
The online poll of 1,500 Canadians was conducted Oct. 3-8.
Overall, it suggests more Canadians are open to voting Conservative than any other party but, at the same time, those open to voting Liberal are the most enthusiastic.
“I would say that for now, if managed carefully and properly, it does look as though, of the three leaders, Justin Trudeau does appear to be heading into the next election cycle from a place of more strength than either of his opposition counterparts,” said Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute.
“Trudeau’s base is fired up, excited by and very much approving of his job and his performance as leader. “
By contrast, Scheer and particularly Singh remain largely unknown quantities to many voters, she added.
That said, the poll also suggests that the Liberals are vulnerable on two particular issues: their management of the influx of irregular border crossers and their failure to deliver on Trudeau’s promise to run modest deficits and return to balance by the end of the first mandate.